Why Airbus superjumbo won't match all the hype

However, the invasion of the super-jumbos is exactly what may come to pass if we are to believe the boast of Airbus that London's premier airport will become the world's number one hub for the A380. Says Airbus, quoting its latest 20-year global market forecasts, by the end of the next decade Heathrow will be handling 90 of these airborne behemoths every day.

As it happens, Heathrow gets its first-ever passenger-paying A380 next month when a Singapore Airlines flight from the city state touches down.

Within 12 years, says Airbus, A380s will be on scheduled services into Heathrow in their hordes: from five cities in the Middle East, six in India and Pakistan, four in China and six more in the Asia-Pacific region, from seven airports in the US, three in South America, and from Johannesburg and Cape Town.

Heathrow will cement its current position as the world's busiest international airport by beating Hong Kong and Dubai to become the airport most used by what the industry calls "very large aircraft" - and given that Boeing has yet to come up with a credible next-generation, stretched version of the Boeing 747 jumbo jet, that means the A380.

But while your west London nimby, environmentalist and general anti-aviationists will throw up their hands in horror at the thought of the onslaught, Airbus argues that to do so is to miss the point completely.

It fires off its battery of statistics to claim the A380 is greener and cleaner than any other commercial aircraft: it burns 40% less fuel per passenger than the industry average; it is half as noisy as a 747 on take-off; it emits less noxious-particle pollution, and so on.

However, Airbus's coup de grâce in the attempt to win over the anti-Heathrow expansionist is the claim its bigger aircraft means fewer flights: that with the A380 you can get more passengers out of Heathrow with fewer planes.

Airbus also cites the words of Eryl Smith, sometime planning and development director at airport operator BAA, who once said: "By 2016, the A380 could enable nearly 10 million more passengers to fly to and from Heathrow with no increase in flights."

But, as is always the case with the aviation industry, all is not what it seems, and the real story is that if the A380 becomes the success Airbus claims for it, it will be for the wrong reasons.

The standard Airbus line has been that the A380 will cut chronic airport congestion at Heathrow and another 90 major airports around the world at or close to full capacity. That was the raison d'être for the double-decker A380, an aircraft so big it could handle up to 800 passengers. Now, it transpires, no airline taking the A380 is configuring the aircraft to carry more than 470 passengers.

The reason is simple, says Airbus chief salesman John Leahy: "Everyone now wants lay-flat beds, not only in first class but also in business. And in first class they want more privacy and are demanding mini-suites. And passengers in economy want some comfort too so there is more room being made with seat pitch there.

"It is a fact that when the 747 went into service, Boeing expected the aircraft to carry more than 400 passengers. Because of what has been going on in business class, 747s are now configured at under 300 seats."

Translated, that means the Airbus superjumbo is the only plane that can pander to the grandiose expectations of today's wealthy or corporate flyer, but in passenger number terms it is in effect only a direct replacement for the ageing Boeing jumbo.

And a panacea at Heathrow for the congestion suffered by the great unwashed? Unlikely.