Accurate rain predictions developed - News in brief - Evening Standard
       

Accurate rain predictions developed

Forecasters have said they had developed ways of predicting more precisely where and when the kind of extreme rainfall that caused much of last summer's devastating floods would occur.

The Met Office said the technological advances meant it would now be able to warn people of severe rainfall up to three days in advance - giving an extra day's warning.

And the forecasters will be able to pinpoint more accurately the location where large amounts of rain will fall, enabling local authorities to prepare for it.

Much of the flooding which hit parts of the UK in June and July last year was caused by surface water after intense rainfall, with May to July the wettest on record by a large margin.

In many cases the rapid flooding could not be predicted by Environment Agency flood warnings because it was caused by rainwater run-off and did not involve rivers or coastal flooding, for which the agency is responsible.

The Met Office, which issues severe weather warnings, and the Environment Agency are currently developing a pilot scheme to forecast and assess the impact of extreme rainfall in causing floods.

The pilot aims to let local authorities, emergency services and other organisations know when heavy rain might fall and which areas could potentially flood as a result.

Brian Golding, head of forecasting, said the advances meant that for the prediction of heavy summer rainfall, which tends to occur in a more localised way than the bands of rain seen in winter, the forecasters had gained a day.

And forecasters were able to more precisely pinpoint the location of extreme rain several hours in advance of its arrival.

The improvements meant "local authorities will be able to make sure gullies are cleared and that sort of thing", he said.

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