'Brown bounce' shunts Labour ahead

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Newspaper surveys put the party three to four points ahead of David Cameron's Conservatives, while a poll for the BBC found 40% of voters thought the Brown government would be "a change for the better" compared with Tony Blair's administration, against just 14% who thought it would be worse.

A poll for the Guardian shows Labour surging by seven points since last month to 39%, four points clear of David Cameron's Conservatives on 35%.

And a second survey for the Daily Telegraph recorded a five-point increase in Labour's rating, putting Mr Brown's party on 38% against the Tories' 35%.

The results were Labour's best performances in both of the regular monthly polls since Mr Cameron become Tory leader in 2005, and would be enough to win Mr Brown a clear Commons majority if repeated at the ballot box in a snap election.

In a separate survey for BBC1's Politics Show, some 40% of those questioned said that Mr Brown's government would be "a change for the better", 40% expected it to amount to "no change at all" and just 14% thought it would mark "a change for the worse".

Mr Brown also did well in a head-to-head contest with Mr Cameron in the YouGov poll for the Telegraph, with 35% saying he would make the best Prime Minister, against 23% for the Tory leader. Mr Brown was up five points, and Mr Cameron down four, since last month.

The Conservatives were four points down compared to last month in the Telegraph/YouGov poll, but up one point in the Guardian/ICM survey. Their 35% rating was near the party's low-point during Mr Cameron's 18 months at the helm.

But Sir Menzies Campbell's Liberal Democrats also appear to have lost out from the Brown effect, falling three points to 18% in the Guardian poll, but holding steady at 15% in the Telegraph.

Just 5% said they thought Sir Menzies would make the best Prime Minister.