Climate change 'extinctions' warning

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Such a disaster would not necessarily mean the end of humanity, but it could kill off more than half of all the animal and plant species on Earth.

British scientists have uncovered the first strong evidence of a close coupling between the Earth's climate and extinctions.

The researchers from the University of York analysed the relationship between the two over the past 520 million years - almost the whole of the available fossil record.

Matching marine and terrestrial species diversity against temperature estimates, they found that the range is relatively small during warm "greenhouse" climate phases. Meanwhile, extinction rates are relatively high.

The opposite pattern is seen when cooler "icehouse" conditions prevail. Then, biodiversity increases and more species survive.

Climate change predictions for the future fall within the range of the warmest greenhouse phases associated with mass extinction events in the fossil record, said the scientists.

Dr Peter Mayhew, a member of the York team, said: "Our results provide the first clear evidence that global climate may explain substantial variation in the fossil record in a simple and consistent manner. If our results hold for current warming - the magnitude of which is comparable with the long-term fluctuations in Earth climate - they suggest that extinctions will increase."

Computer simulations point to global temperature rises of around 1.5C by the middle of the century, and 3C in the next 100 years. Some experts believe these estimates are too conservative.

The research is published in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society.