Data to reveal new economic decline

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But the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates are likely to show a much shallower 0.3% fall between April and June than the 2.4% slump seen between January and March - the worst since 1958.

Another quarter of falling output will nonetheless take the UK's economic decline since the recession began to 5.2% - more than double the depth of the downturn in the early 1990s.

The fall likely between April and June should reflect easing conditions in the services, construction and manufacturing sectors, with firms beginning to return to production after using up stockpiles.

Retail data published on Thursday showed sales volumes between April and June up 0.7% compared with the previous three months, hinting at more resilience than expected on the high street.

Investec economist David Page said: "The second quarter should be the point where the figures begin to improve, given stronger surveys and other evidence suggesting demand starting to flatten out and a more modest pace of destocking.

"Nevertheless it does seem as though it would be an unrealistic stretch for quarterly GDP growth to return to positive territory."

Mr Page predicts the economy will return to growth in the third quarter of this year for the first time since the first three months of 2008.

Forecasts from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research this week suggested that it could take five years for income per head to recover to pre-recession levels.

Colin Ellis, at Daiwa Securities, said: "The UK economy is very close to its bottom. The hard part now will be generating growth while households, companies and banks are still busy deleveraging and repairing their balance sheets."