Doubt cast over 'end' of recession

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The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said business confidence was improving but warned the economy is still "frail".

The business lobby group's latest quarterly survey showed confidence among manufacturers and services firms at its highest point since the start of 2008 - before the recession began - but several indicators remain negative.

The BCC's chief economist, David Kern, said: "The third-quarter results support our assessment that the UK economy is on the brink of leaving recession.

"However, the improvement is not sufficiently strong to allow us to conclude without doubt that GDP has already returned to positive growth. The economy is still frail."

Official estimates are due next week on the performance of the economy in the third quarter of this year. If the economy remains in the doldrums it will be the first time the UK has endured six successive quarters without growth.

The BCC's survey showed "significant" improvement among manufacturers, although none of its indicators on domestic sales and orders or exports are in positive territory.

Among services firms, the BCC found export sales and orders had returned to slim growth although domestic demand is still declining.

The survey data comes after worse than expected manufacturing output figures showed a surprise decline in August. The fragility comes despite unprecedented efforts to boost the economy, including record low interest rates of 0.5% and a £175 billion effort to boost the economy with newly created money.

The BCC predicts a 4.3% slide for the economy this year and an anaemic 1.1% growth in 2010 as a weak recovery gets under way.