Experts predict inflation rate rise

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Estimates have put the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) - the official measure of inflation - at 4.2% for the year to July, up from 3.8% in June and a new series record.

The measure, which is calculated by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), is likely to have risen again due to soaring oil and food prices.

Crude oil topped an all-time high of 147 US dollars a barrel in the second week of July before retreating by about 25% over the following month.

The Retail Prices Index (RPI), which includes mortgage payments and is more commonly used for wage bargaining and pension payments, is also expected to have reached 4.7%.

The increases will reduce the chance of an imminent interest rate cut for hard-pressed homeowners, with policymakers at the Bank of England expected to wait for more evidence of inflation peaking before easing the burden.

Oil's relentless price rise, as well as those of associated energy and food costs, have been the main driver for recent inflation growth, the CPI version of which has increased from 1.8% in September last year.

The rise in the cost of living index is expected to approach the 5% mark later this year, with hefty double-digit hikes in gas and electricity bills from EDF and British Gas last month adding to the pressure.

Other recent price surveys have signalled that price rises continued last month. On Monday, ONS data showed factory gate prices rose 10.2% during the year to July. And British Retail Consortium figures showed annual shop price inflation jumping 0.7% to 3.2% last month - its highest reading since the survey began in 2006.

The Bank of England releases its August Inflation Report on Wednesday, which will provide more information on how policymakers see inflation moving and its implications for interest rates.