Fresh doubts over emissions target

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According to forecasts by Cambridge Econometrics, carbon emissions will be just 15% below 1990 levels by 2020 - far less than the 26-32% interim target proposed in the Draft Climate Change Bill.

Members of the Joint Committee set up to examine the Bill recommended earlier this month removing the upper limit of 32%, and warned the longer-term goal of achieving a 60% reduction by 2050 may not be enough to prevent dangerous levels of climate change.

But even achieving the minimum 26% cut by 2020 will be an "uphill struggle" unless this year's Energy White Paper aimed at combating climate change and securing energy supply is followed with robust policies to reduce carbon, the authors of the UK Energy And The Environment report warned.

And the Government's longer-term goal of a legally binding 60% cut by 2050 is also at risk, the independent economic forecasters said.

While the UK will "comfortably" meet its Kyoto obligations of a 12.75% reduction by 2010, it has already become clear that CO2 emissions will not fall enough to meet the Government's target of a 20% cut by then.

Carbon emissions have not decreased in any year since 2002, but are expected to decline by around 1.75% per year between 2005 and 2010, if prices for EU's emission trading scheme's allowances recover as expected and reduce coal-fired power generation. Emissions from energy-intensive industry should drop around 3% a year, but increases are expected from air and road transport, the analysis said.

The report also revealed that renewable energy will make up just 5% of the UK's total electricity production by 2010 - half of the 10% target, the report predicts.

And the country will also miss the target of 15% by 2015 demanded by the Renewables Obligation, the mandatory requirement for UK electricity suppliers to source a growing percentage of power from renewable energy generation.