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House price growth at two-year high
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14 January 2007
Property prices increased by 12.1% in the 12 months to the end of June, the biggest annual jump since March 2005, according to the Department for Communities and Local Government.
On a monthly basis house price growth doubled in June, with prices jumping by 1.6%, compared with an increase of 0.7% in May, to put the average cost of a home in the UK at £214,222.
The stronger than expected figures contrast with other indexes which had shown the housing market was slowing down in response to higher interest rates.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at Global Insight, said: "There is no denying that the DCLG house price data are markedly stronger than expected, and suggest that the housing market is proving resilient to higher interest rates."
But he added that the DCLG figures tended to lag behind other indexes, and recent figures for July from Nationwide, Rightmove, Hometrack and the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors had all suggested the market was slowing.
He said: "The overall impression than we get from the very latest data and survey evidence is that the housing market has peaked and is gradually and erratically coming off the boil as demand is increasingly pressurised by the rising affordability pressures stemming from higher interest rates, modest real disposable income growth and elevated house prices.
"Furthermore, there is still a very real possibility that that interest rates will rise by a further 25 basis points to 6.0% in the autumn, which would heighten affordability pressures, although much is likely to depend on events in global financial markets over the coming weeks."
But he said there was a danger that tighter credit and sustained financial market turmoil could "hurt" the mortgage and housing markets, increasing the risk of a "sharp slowdown".
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