Key marginals 'swing to Cameron'

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The ICM survey for the News of the World shows 131 Labour MPs are set to be kicked out of the Commons in favour of their Tory challengers.

The outlook for Gordon Brown has deteriorated dramatically since last October when a similar poll suggested Labour would lose 49 seats.

Taken in the 145 seats where the Tories came closest to beating Labour in 2005, it shows the two parties' fortunes have entirely reversed.

The Tories are seven points up compared to three years ago, on 40%, while Labour are 11 points down, on 32%. The findings point to a 9% swing from Labour to the Tories, bagging Mr Cameron a 64-seat majority.

They come ahead of Thursday's local and London mayoral elections and a forthcoming by-election to replace Labour's Crewe and Nantwich MP Gwyneth Dunwoody, who died recently.

ICM's managing director Nick Sparrow said: "Labour will have been heartened by ICM's recent national poll, suggesting that they were recovering from some dire poll figures which had am 11% deficit against the Conservatives," he said.

"But today's poll suggests that the situation in the marginals is worse than is indicated by the national polls."

More people also think Mr Cameron would be better on tax, dealing with the cost of living, handling the "war on terror", modernising the NHS, raising school standards, controlling immigration and improving transport.

Only on dealing with the credit crunch did Mr Brown score better.