Number of criminals 'up 410,000'

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Policy Exchange cited unpublished Home Office research, which suggested that the number of offenders has risen by 410,000 since Lord Birt's Reducing Crime Review in 2001, when the total was estimated at 1.19 million criminals, committing an average of 58 offences a year.

The think-tank said the figures also identify 350,000 high-rate persistent offenders - a 200,000 rise on the number in 2001.

With the most prolific offenders estimated to cause damage worth an average of £300,000 to individuals and households, Policy Exchange estimated that this hard-core of offenders could cost the public around £105 billion over the course of their criminal careers.

But the Home Office said the figures were no more than estimates, while the latest official studies showed no increase in the number of people offending or the number of prolific offenders.

The figures highlighted by Policy Exchange come from a Home Office impact assessment on the Youth Crime Action Plan, published in July 2008, which suggested that around 250,000 to 300,000 young people could be active as serious youth offenders, and a further 350,000 as adults.

The same report added that "minor offenders are thought to account for around 200,000 to 250,000 youth offenders with perhaps as many as 700,000 committing crimes as adults", suggesting a total of 1.5-1.6 million offenders in all.

Max Chambers, a research fellow in Policy Exchange's Crime and Justice Unit, said: "These figures are a terrible indictment of the failure of promises to crack down on the crime that blights so many of our communities.

"The rhetoric about being tough on crime and the causes of crime appears to have remained exactly that.