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Poll suggests Tory landslide
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05 January 2008
The survey in the News of the World comes a year after a similar poll for the same newspaper, which was credited with helping persuade Gordon Brown not to call a snap election when it predicted Labour would lose 49 seats and forfeit its overall majority.
According to the paper, the findings would give Mr Cameron a clear 78-seat Commons majority if repeated in an election.
The results show how Labour's position has worsened over the past year, and suggest that the "bounce" enjoyed by Mr Brown due to his handling of the economic crisis and his well-received conference speech has still left him with a lot to do if he is to overhaul the Tories.
Pollsters ICM interviewed around 1,000 people in the 192 Labour-held seats where Tories are in second place and require a swing of 15% or less to win, in order to focus on the key battleground constituencies where the election will be decided.
They found that 43% of people questioned in those seats said they would vote Conservative, against 34% for Labour and 15% for the Liberal Democrats.
Some 50% thought Mr Cameron would make the best Prime Minister, against 35% for Mr Brown, and respondents also said the Tory leader had the best ideas on almost all policy areas, including traditional Labour territory like modernising the NHS and improving education standards.
Tories were also thought to have come up with the best policy initiative during the conference season, with 78% backing their plan for a two-year council tax freeze, against 62% supporting Labour's free nursery care for two year olds and 51% giving the thumbs-up for the Lib Dems' proposed 4p income tax cut.
But there was better news for the Prime Minister as a majority of those questioned rated him as the best person to deal with the credit crunch. Some 43% named Mr Brown, against 35% for Mr Cameron.
More than half (58%) thought Mr Brown should stay on as Prime Minister, against 36% who said he should step down.
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