UK population 'to go up 15 million'

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Oxford University professor of demography David Coleman has predicted the population will expand by at least 15 million by 2051, up from last year's figure of 60 million.

Prof Coleman, who based his calculations on an updated model for counting migration adopted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), said even that figure was likely to be an "underestimate".

His projections are expected to be confirmed by Government population experts this week.

The ONS said last month their estimates for the number of people migrating to the UK had increased to 190,000 a year compared with 145,000 in calculations issued two years ago.

It was thought the review was mainly due to higher numbers of eastern Europeans coming to Britain since their countries joined the EU.

Prof Coleman's calculations, disclosed in a memo to the House of Lords economic affairs committee, predict the UK population will reach 69 million in 2031 and 75 million in 2051. He has also told peers that the proportion of the UK population classed as non-white was on course to grow from 9% at the last census in 2001 to 29% in 2051.

The projection on population figures represents a significant adjustment to figures released in 2005 predicting the UK population increasing to 69 million by 2051.

He said he used the updated ONS model for his calculations but did not factor in improvement in survival "so my figures are probably underestimates by one or two million".

He said: "The absent-minded commitment into which we have drifted, to house a further 15 million people, must be the biggest unintended consequence of government policy of almost any century. As it is by no means unavoidable, being almost entirely dependent upon continued immigration, it might be thought worthy of discussion. In official circles, there has been none."