Groundhog Day: It could be a rerun for England's Fab Four - Sport - Evening Standard
       

Groundhog Day: It could be a rerun for England's Fab Four

Predictions, as yesterday's one-horse race at Cheltenham demonstrated, can sometimes prove a little tricky.

But history appears likely to repeat itself at some stage of what remains of this season's Champions League. Are we about to witness a third semi-final in four years between Chelsea and Liverpool?

Will Arsenal get the opportunity to avenge their defeat in the 2006 final with another meeting with Barcelona, this time in Moscow and with Thierry Henry playing for the opposition? Can Manchester United again crush Roma 7-1?

A member of an online forum at the Liverpool Echo could probably tell us now, having predicted yesterday's quarter-final draw 90 minutes before it actually took place.

Fix? UEFA insisted not, with spokesman William Gaillard suggesting the internet genius in question must possess 'supernatural powers'.

Back in the real world, Richard Scudamore can look at the draw and argue that this is exactly why he is so keen to protect the collective spirit of the Barclays Premier League with the introduction of an overseas round. Scudamore points to the fact that the same teams are reaching the latter stages of Europe's most prestigious competition every year, which succeeds only in widening the gap between the mega-rich and the also-rans.

Given the Groundhog Day nature of the last few seasons — two finals in the last three between AC Milan and Liverpool — the Premier League chief executive does appear to have a point.

Arsenal and Liverpool might now be meeting in two legs of a quarterfinal that fall either side of a Premier League encounter between the two teams at the Emirates on April 5, but English football is certainly capable of matching last season's remarkable achievements.

Three teams in the semi-finals is a very real possibility when all four English clubs have avoided Barcelona. United, just as they did last year, face Roma while Chelsea probably have the easiest route to the semis after being drawn against Fenerbahce.

Maintain their march on Moscow and the millions Europe's elite receive from UEFA in prize money will continue to roll in, and while that's great for the fab four it can only concern those desperately trying to gate-crash the party. How much longer can David Moyes perform miracles at Everton? Will Juande Ramos ever transform Tottenham into a top four club?

Such issues do not, of course, concern UEFA. They want the box office teams in their competition and the presence of four clubs from the world's most popular league in the quarter-finals amounts to the perfect scenario.

Chelsea and Fenerbahce might not set pulses racing with television audiences across the world, but a defeat for Chelsea against Nicolas Anelka's former club would probably mark the end of Avram Grant's tenure as manager, so there is much at stake.

It is, however, that tie between Liverpool and Arsenal that really captures the imagination. There was little to choose between the two sides during an enthralling 1-1 draw at Anfield back in October and next month's trio of meetings promise to be just as close.

Arsenal, as the Premier League table would suggest, are the more complete side and their performance against AC Milan last week, and indeed their progress to the 2006 final, says they are not half as naive on the continent as they used to be.

Liverpool, however, are the masters of European competition. A side that, for all their failings on the domestic front, collect major scalps with extraordinary frequency. Last week Inter Milan were added to a list that includes their fellow tenants at the San Siro as well as Barcelona, Chelsea and Juventus.

As Wenger acknowledged yesterday, a Champions League tie over two legs is very different to a Premier League match. 'In a League game you can concede a goal,' said Arsenal's manager. 'In the Champions League you have seen against Liverpool, and against Milan, how vital it is not to concede at home.'

It is a question of holding your nerve and Liverpool have proved again and again that they possess nerves of steel. In Istanbul after conceding three first-half goals, and in the penalty shoot-outs that not only secured the European Cup but also took them past Chelsea last season.

While Rafa Benitez was talking confidently in the wake of yesterday's draw, Wenger concedes that their quarter-final represents the toughest draw. 'Compared to Fenerbahce and the history of Manchester United against Roma, you would say yes we do,' said Wenger.

Roma appear to have made progress since last season. When United met them again in the group stages back in October they only beat them 1-0 and their defeat of Real Madrid deserves respect.

But Ferguson appeared confident yesterday, concerning himself more with the safety of United supporters than his team. 'The security was much improved when we went there in December,' said Ferguson. 'Although I'm sure we will be taking more fans this time.'

It is safe to assume they will. But the outcome of a semi-final between United and Barca? Now that is much harder to predict.

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