Hamilton no longer a safe bet for the title after Ferrari revival

Hamilton holds a five-point lead as the sport packs its bags with two free weekends before the European Grand Prix in Valencia on August 24, but all bets are off.

Caught out: Massa passes Hamilton on the first corner in Hungary

Damon Hill, the last Englishman to win the title, 12 years ago, declared himself a reluctant punter after watching Sunday’s eventful Hungarian Grand Prix in which Hamilton finished fifth.

‘Before the race, I would have said Lewis for the title, but I have to say I would want my bet back,’ he admitted. ‘I’d be saying: “Wait a moment, Ferrari look strong”. Their pace is the real danger. As an outside bet, I’d put my money on Kimi Raikkonen.’

Hamilton was odds-on favourite to convert pole position into a third consecutive victory at the Hungaroring, only to be ‘out-Hamiltoned’ at the start by the audacity of Felipe Massa’s overtaking, before suffering a burst tyre.

Then, just as he faced losing his Championship lead to Massa, the engine of the Brazilian’s Ferrari blew with just three laps left. His retirement gifted Hamilton’s team-mate Heikki Kovalainen his first victory — and left the overall picture muddled.

Hamilton leads Ferrari’s world champion Raikkonen, who was third on Sunday, by five points. Massa is a further three off Hamilton’s mark with seven races left.

In terms of the title, the rest — starting with Robert Kubica who is 13 points adrift and short of the required speed in his BMW — can effectively be ruled out.

Not so cheerful outlook: Hamilton's hopes have been punctured

So which of the top three will emerge from a roller-coaster season wearing motor racing’s crown? The only confident prediction you can make is that it is likely to go down to the closing few rounds, possibly even to the final race in Brazil on November 2.

In Hamilton’s favour, he said at the weekend that he felt more comfortable in the car than ever before, although he was shaken in the immediate aftermath of Sunday’s action.

He cursed his luck in suffering a third punctured tyre in the last 17 races, but we should attach more significance to his rivals’ sudden resurgence following two successive Hamilton wins. Hill said: ‘McLaren work the tyres harder which is good for qualifying, but Ferrari are better over race distance.’

There are caveats we must add. McLaren are stronger in colder conditions, the Ferraris in hotter conditions. McLaren supposedly have the edge on tight tracks, the Ferraris on tracks with sweeping bends.

At the Hungaroring on a hot, slow track, Massa was brisk and Raikkonen notched the fastest lap. Hamilton, though galloping in qualifying, struggled against Massa in the race.

So it seems the title’s destiny could hinge on skill behind the wheel and savvy on the pit wall rather than advanced science. If so, Hamilton, hardened by last year’s near miss, appears the most complete contender. Certainly, he is hungrier than Raikkonen and less temperamental than Massa.

But what Hamilton, the young rain-master, should really wish for while he suns himself is that when the season re-starts the heavens open.