Modesty is the best policy for England, Fabio

Much had gone wrong — Wayne Rooney had been sent off, David Beckham had ended up injured and weeping from the bench after being substituted early in the second half and England had gone out following another anguished penalty shoot-out failure. The usual melodramas, in other words.

On that extraordinarily warm evening in Gelsenkirchen, Eriksson had worn the glazed expression of someone suffering from shock. "We still have the team to reach the final," he said, oddly using the present tense, as if what had passed was no more than a rehearsal for the main event to come.

It had long been Eriksson's conviction that he would lead England to the final. He was in charge of the "Golden Generation" of Beckham, Rio Ferdinand, Ashley Cole, Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard, John Terry and the slightly younger Rooney. They were among the brightest superstars in the constellation of the global game.

Eriksson was suffering from the delusion that seems to afflict all England coaches in the end: that it is somehow England's destiny to win the World Cup each time the tournament comes around.

The bitter truth was that England were on the whole awful in Germany and even worse during the two years that Steve McClaren was the coach.

They have obviously improved under Fabio Capello but, as they showed in Monday night's win over Mexico, they still play too often as if the ball is something to be distrusted rather than nurtured, caressed and controlled, in the way of Spain or Argentina.

They still play like a team tormented by past failures and a long history of underachievement.

After a promising period of caution, Capello has begun to show signs that he, too, is succumbing to the same sense of delusion as his predecessors. The closer we get to the start of the World Cup in South Africa, the more convinced he seems to be that England can go all the way to the final.

Why should we believe him? Of the major European footballing powers, England have gone the longest without reaching the final of either the World Cup or European Championships.

Since 1966, Germany have reached 11 finals, winning five; Italy have reached six, winning three; France have reached four, winning three; Holland have reached three, winning one; Spain have reached two, winning one, and Portugal have reached one.

Before Euro 96, Baddiel and Skinner sang of 30 years of hurt; this has since been revised upwards to 44 years. But it's not hurt we feel at repeated failure; it's irritation that so much hype and investment should have produced such dismal returns.

The most sense spoken around the England camp in recent weeks has been by Steven Gerrard. He recognises that this is the last chance for the Golden Generation at a World Cup but he refuses to inflate expectations. The midfielder speaks not of winning the tournament but of England simply "doing themselves justice".

Pragmatic but determined: that's the kind of language that Capello should also be using as the countdown to South Africa begins in earnest.

Downplay expectations, be modest and cautious — and then, for once, we might all be surprised.