Pack's power is the key to glorious victory

Brian Ashton's players are still not quite able to explain how they have gone from chumps to potential champs in the space of five weeks. As Mike Catt put it succinctly this week: "I just don't know how we have got here."

Miraculous wins over Australia and France in the knock-out stages have done a lot to erase the painful memories of their mauling by South Africa in Paris.

Total redemption will be achieved if they overcome the same opponents at the same venue and become the first nation to successfully defend the Webb Ellis Trophy.

But if England need a reality check they should consider this: If South African can win 36-0 without fearsome flanker Shalk Burger in the team, what will they do when he's wearing the No6 jersey tomorrow?

The battle hardened England pack have to resist what will be a very unsubtle attempt by the Boks to rattle the foundation of their recent shock wins. South Africa will be confrontational up front and Burger will be leading the assault.

He is the kind of man who would pick a fight with his own reflection if he looked at a mirror in the wrong way.

While the electric pace of winger Bryan Habana could well ruin Jason Robinson's farewell England appearance, it will be Burger and the pack who are going to determine the outcome of the most amazing World Cup ever.

England have to attack the Springboks up front with a driving, mauling game that saps the opposition strength. South Africa's only weakness is at tighthead prop where CJ Van der Linde, when he feels under pressure, takes the easy way out by angling away from the opposition prop.

The rest of the Springbok front row then detaches to try and trick the referee into believing they are not breaking the law, which more often than not they are.

If referee Alain Rolland penalises Van der Linde early it will give England a psychological lift.

The Boks are keenly aware that Brian Ashton's gameplan depends on the forwards dominating the scrums and break downs while gaining parity at the lineout. Attack the England scrum, get more

men to the break down and compete fiercely on Mark Regan's throw-ins and the defending champions will start to run into real problems.

That is why captain Vickery has to ask his fellow forwards for one final magnificent effort and try to give Jonny Wilkinson the chance to kick deep into opposition territory.

Robinson, plus wings Mark Cueto and Paul Sackey will face a barrage of tactical kicking from Percy Montgomery, particularly if the Springboks get the upper hand in that key forward battle.

In their semi-final, Argentina fell apart early in their bid to unsettle the 1995 champions and after slipping behind on the scoreboard, they chased the game.

Habana was able to finish off a try created by Burger's turnover while the pressure applied by their defence forced Argentina to throw out a loose pass which scrum-half Fourie du Preez intercepted and ran back 70 metres for the score.

It is this ability to turn defence into attack that makes the Springboks so dangerous and unlike the Wallabies and French teams, they have key decision makers at No9 and No10 who have remained calm under intense pressure.

England benefited greatly from the tactical naivety of their last two opponents and when the game went down to the wire, only Wilkinson kept his head.

At some point, England will surely show the effects of so many hard fought knock-out games during the campaign and they can only hope it doesn't manifest itself until after the final whistle.

England deserve to finish with their honour intact, but it will be South Africa who take the title.