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Remember how England did it in 1981?
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14 November 2007
What looked like a straightforward campaign has gone badly wrong and the manager seems one game away from the sack.
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We're in: Keegan (left) and Martin celebrate the grounded Mariner's 1981 goal
Two of our group rivals are about to face each other — one already knocked out, the other going hell for leather for the win which could set them up for a shock place in the finals.
In truth, the game should have been up already for England after they suffered consecutive away defeats to two respected but supposedly inferior footballing nations.
All the manager, players and fans can do is wait, watch and suffer.
But here is the good bit. For November 2007 read November 1981. For Steve McClaren read Ron Greenwood.
And for Israel v Russia read Switzerland v Romania. Yes, we have been here before. And things went our way — just.
It hardly seems possible but the mathematical qualification equation was even more complicated back then.
In the days of two points for a win, England fans had all but given up hope of reaching the 1982 World Cup finals in Spain after the generation of Keegan, Brooking, Coppell and Shilton (or Clemence) suffered shock defeats, not in Croatia and Russia, but Switzerland and Norway.
With all hope seemingly lost, the Swiss somehow managed to keep alive Greenwood's hopes of qualifying with a bizarre run of form which saw them win in Romania but then lose in Hungary.
It all meant that with one match to go, Switzerland's own hopes were over but the much-fancied Romanians could still pip England.
Whereas now a Russia win on Saturday will leave them needing to beat Andorra to qualify, 26 years ago a win for Romania in Berne would have piled the pressure on Greenwood's men to beat table-topping Hungary a week later.
Like now, many had long expected the worst.
But the footballing gods continued to smile on England as the Swiss held out for a goalless stalemate which left the Three Lions, with a superior goal difference, miraculously only needing a point against Hungary to qualify.
Greenwood certainly knew he had a debt to pay the Swiss, saying: "Bless all their mountains, cuckoo clocks and financial gnomes".
A week later, a sell-out 92,000 crowd packed Wembley to cheer England to the finals. Ipswich striker Paul Mariner's 14th-minute strike was enough for the victory that ensured England fans had a summer to look forward to rather than regret. Now, if only...
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