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Tiers of joy as new rules could keep us clear of the All Blacks
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26 February 2008
The draw, to be made at the end of the year, will be based for the first time on the official International Board rankings and England's win in Paris has put them back into the top four above Australia.
Fearsome rivals: England will be looking to avoid the All Blacks in the group stages of the 2011 World Cup
Provided they are still there on December 1, Phil Vickery's team will be guaranteed immunity from the hosts as well as the holders, South Africa, at the pool stage.
Tournament organisers have bowed to criticism and scrapped the policy of basing the top four seeds on where they finished at the previous World Cup, a procedure which took no account of current form.
Under the old system, New Zealand would not have been one of the top four seeds because of their elimination by France in the quarter-final last October.
Under the new one, the 12 qualifying nations will be divided into three separate tiers as determined by their official ranking.
If the rankings remain unchanged, they will be split as follows: Tier 1 seeds: South Africa (90.81 pts), New Zealand (89.59), Argentina (87.42), England (84.96) Tier 2 seeds: Australia (84.20), France (81.00), Ireland (78.81), Wales (77.27). Tier 3 seeds: Fiji (75.88), Scotland (74.19), Italy (72.52), Samoa (71.61).
Eight other nations will qualify to make up four pools of five.
If England are to preserve their top-four status, they will need more than a strong finish to the Six Nations against Scotland in Edinburgh next week and Ireland at Twickenham seven days later.
Their ranking will then come under a series of severe Tests from the Southern Hemisphere, starting with two matches against the All Blacks in Christchurch and Auckland in June.
The influence of those results in determining their World Cup fate will put real meaning into a summer tour which had become increasingly meaningless.
Wales, Ireland and Scotland will all be in the same boat. Even if Wales win a second Grand Slam in three years, they would still be left with a monumental task to climb into the world's top four. They would have to beat the Springboks in back-to-back Tests in June, a task made all the more improbable by the fact that they have beaten the Springboks only once in 19 attempts.
Ireland play one Test in New Zealand at the end of the season, followed by two in Australia.
International Board spokesman Greg Thomas said: 'The change in the seeding method is designed to recognise current form. People will ask why we don't push it back beyond that to a later deadline. The principal reason is that the New Zealanders have told us they need a three-year period to get all their logistical planning and commercial programmes in place.'
Plans for an inter-hemisphere competition, revealed by Sportsmail before Christmas, will take another step towards fruition this week when a high powered delegation of the leading countries meets in Hong Kong. They will discuss the mechanics of an event featuring the top 12 teams in the world.
The project, which cannot start until 2012 at the earliest, is designed to increase the importance of the June and November Test windows.
Former England captain Bill Beaumont said: 'We are looking at a competition which pits the best against the best. It offers all sorts of exciting possibilities.'
Wasps flanker James Haskell is in danger of missing England's match in Scotland after confirming that the ankle he sprained in Paris last weekend threatens to keep him out for a fortnight. He has already been ruled out of Wasps Premiership match at Newcastle on Friday.
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