Walter Swinburn exclusive: Approach the right one in the Derby

Trainer Jim Bolger has taken plenty of flak over his U-turn in running plans after insisting his colt would sidestep Epsom.

Leader of pack: New Approach (left) can show rivals a clean pair of heels

Ante-post punters were angry but forget that now. The simple fact is New Approach possesses the best form in a race I expect to be dominated by Irish runners, with Dermot Weld's Casual Conquest chasing him home.

Bolger may not have won a Derby but his record at Epsom is impressive. With only five previous runners, he has been second twice with St Jovite (1992) and Blue Judge (1993) and third with Star of Gdansk (1991).

New Approach, who won five from five to become champion two-year-old last year, has been beaten by Henrythenavigator in both the English and Irish Guineas this season but that does not put me off.

The Minstrel, the great Vincent O'Brien's 1977 winner, won a Derby after being beaten in both Guineas.

It was also no disgrace to lose to Henrythenavigator, who looks an outstanding miler. Over this mile and a half with a slightly slower tempo, New Approach should be more at home.

When the pair met at The Curragh, lightning fast going prevented my selection from doing himself justice.

He'll appreciate the give in the Epsom ground. I think his nose defeat at Newmarket deserved more credit than it got, too.

That day Bolger's colt tried to make all directly into one of the strongest headwinds I have ever experienced at Newmarket. No wonder he was ripe to be cut down by the late burst from Henrythenavigator but he confirmed his strength and gutsy reputation.

Overcoming temperament issues, which has prompted Bolger to pony him down to the start with stablemate Metamorphosis, his personal comfort blanket, has to be a worry but one I think he can cope with.

There is no doubt he has speed - his pedigree is stocked with stamina - and, if jockey Kevin Manning can settle him into a good rhythm without burning up too much petrol in that initial energy-sapping rise, he will win the Derby.

Kevin will be able to fill his horse's lungs on the descent to Tattenham Corner and then kick for home and he'll drag the others out of their comfort zone.

My old boss Sir Michael Stoute runs three - Doctor Fremantle, Tajaaweed and Tartan Bearer. All need to improve but Stoute is a master at peaking his Classic contenders so they cannot be ruled out.

The vibes are that Richard Hills-ridden Tajaaweed, who has overcome an injury scare in midweek, is the best of the trio and I can see him hitting the frame.

None of the others look to possess the scope of Weld's Casual Conquest, a big, inexperienced colt who boasts the most potential in the line-up. He was going to be my tip until Bolger's late call altered the equation.

MY DERBY TRIO

1 NEW APPROACH

2 CASUAL CONQUEST

3 TAJAAWEED