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Walter Swinburn's big-race verdict
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02 June 2007
However, three-time Derby-winning jockey Walter Swinburn believes that ARCHIPENKO, one of eight runners trained by Aidan O'Brien, can gatecrash the Italian's party and provide jockey Mick Kinane with his third victory in the race.
Scroll down to read Walter's analysis on the Derby runners:
Kinane's crack colt: Leopardstoen Derby Trial winner Archipenko looks the best of Aidan O'Brien's eight runners
ACAPULCO
Didn't look like a Derby winner waiting to happen when he split Salford Mill and Eastern Anthem at Newmarket in May. Before that he had won a four-runner maiden at Navan. Stamina more than speed seems to be the forte of this son of 2001 Derby winner Galileo. ODDS: 66-1
Rating: 2/5
ADMIRALOFTHEFLEET
Winner of the Dee Stakes at Chester when the runner-up seemed to curl up rather than put it to him. An interesting contestant but may lack the potent change of gear to make him stand out. The massed Aidan O'Brien team seem to have better hopes. ODDS: 18-1
Rating: 3/5
ANTON CHEKHOV
Solid but unspectacular colt unlikely to produce this year's Derby story. His sire Montjeu is responsible for some notable middle-distance performers, including 2005 Derby winner Motivator, but does not look destined to follow in his illustrious footsteps. ODDS: 50-1
Rating: 2/5
AQALEEM
Represents last year's winning stable and looks a live contender with his trainer making increasingly confident predictions. I liked the way he finished the final furlong when winning the Lingfield Derby Trial and he looks to have ideal breeding for the race. ODDS: 9-1
Rating: 4/5
ARCHIPENKO
My improving pick to win the race. Last year's six-length defeat of a colt who has since finished a close 3rd in the French 2,000 Guineas looks good now. So did his victory in the same Derby trial trainer Aidan O'Brien used for previous winners, High Chaparral and Galileo. ODDS: 9-1
Rating: 5/5
AUTHORIZED
Hot favourite to break Frankie Dettori's Derby duck after making a winning comeback in the Dante Stakes at York, traditionally the best British trial. The softened ground will not be a problem but relatively inexperienced and backing him will not make you rich. ODDS: 10-11
Rating: 4/5
EAGLE MOUNTAIN
Expect him to run a big race. He has experience on his side and is a tough competitor who ran well when 5th in the 2,000 Guineas over 1m. He was well beaten by Authorized in his final run last season but there were legitimate excuses for his defeat. ODDS: 11-1
Rating: 4/5
EASTERN ANTHEM
Dettori will throw himself off the stand if this one wins. His boss, Sheik Mohammed, released him from his retainer to allow him to partner the favourite. Soft ground has persuaded his stable to take their chance but looks well short of the standard required. ODDS: 100-1
Rating: 2/5
KID MAMBO
Looks like a kid faced with a man's job. A colt, who gallops rather than quickens, is trained close to the track but will need more than local knowledge to make up for a shortage of class. Over four lengths behind Aqaleem in the Lingfield Derby Trial. ODDS: 150-1
Rating: 2/5
LEANDER
The rank outsider of the field who has shown enough to suggest he can win at a modest level but that is leagues below what is required here. His Epsom trainer believes he will not be disgraced but success for him would be a midfield finish. ODDS: 500-1
Rating: 1/5
LUCARNO
A colt with the makings a smart performer. The big question has to be whether this enormous test has come a little early in his embryonic career. Won at Newmarket last weekend in emphatic fashion and done little wrong in three runs. ODDS: 16-1
Rating: 3/5
MAHLER
Bred to thrive at middle distances with a Derby winner sire — Galileo — and a dam who was a daughter of Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe hero Rainbow Quest. Yet to prove he has a turn of foot to match his stamina but could race prominently and prove tough to pass. ODDS: 50-1
Rating: 3/5
PETARA BAY
Owned by the wife of Formula One ringmaster Bernie Ecclestone and would be helped if he could be fitted with a turbo charger. Apparently not well when well beaten by Regime in the Sandown trial when he showed a worrying reluctance at the stalls. ODDS: 66-1
Rating: 2/5
REGIME
England rugby star Lawrence Dallaglio is part of the syndicate that owns this colt. Ridden by last year's winning jockey, Martin Dwyer, but I don't think he will be celebrating again. Visually impressive when winning the Sandown trial but may not have beaten much. ODDS: 18-1
Rating: 3/5
SALFORD MILL
From being a solid second favourite with a series of useful performances next to his name, confidence appears to have seeped from this colt after a series of below par work-outs that have left his stable perplexed. There seems to be too many negatives. ODDS: 22-1
Rating: 3/5
SOLDIEROFFORTUNE
Looks tough and scored a narrow verdict in the Chester Vase. But that was probably a sighter for his Irish stable to see how their colts rated against the British. There are surely better contenders among the eight saddled by trainer Aidan O'Brien. ODDS: 16-1
Rating: 3/5
STRATEGIC PRINCE
Showed pace last year when successful as a two-year-old and not disgraced when eighth in the 2,000 Guineas over 1m. The efforts of some of his relatives suggest he could last the longer distance but the soft ground is a negative and may prevent him running. ODDS: 18-1
Rating: 3/5
YELLOWSTONE
There were whispers about his chances before he finished 11th in the 2,000 Guineas and again before he was second in the Leopardstown trial won by my selection. Ran well both times but it will be disappointing if Archipenko can't beat him again. ODDS: 33-1
Rating: 3/5
THE EXPERTS' VERDICTS
WALTER SWINBURN
1 ARCHIPENKO
2 EAGLE MOUNTAIN
3 AUTHORIZED
ROBIN GOODFELLOW
1 AUTHORIZED
2 SOLDIER OF FORTUNE
3 EAGLE MOUNTAIN
GIMCRACK
1 ANTON CHEKHOV
2 AUTHORIZED
3 SOLDIER OF FORTUNE
FORMCAST
1 AUTHORIZED
2 EAGLE MOUNTAIN
3 ADMIRALOFTHEFLEET
CAPTAIN HEATH
1 AQALEEM
2 SOLDIER OF FORTUNE
3 AUTHORIZED
MAIL ON-LINE
1 EAGLE MOUNTAIN
2 ARCHIPENKO
3 MAHLER
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