Wenger left with simple equation as Arsenal fail to close gap

When manager Arsene Wenger uses the word 'mathematical' in describing Arsenal's title chances before Christmas, it only serves to highlight the precarious position his side now find themselves in.

Yesterday's 1-1 draw against Liverpool ensured the Gunners did not fall further behind the League leaders but such has been their inconsistency this season that a hard-fought point earned with 10 men for the majority of the second half is probably only worthy of a pass mark at best.

Defeats to the so-called smaller fry of the Premier League have rendered victories against the contenders as imperative, although the manner of this result should serve as a timely reminder that Arsenal have an impressive resolve when the mood takes them.

They fought valiantly despite struggling to hit top gear and finding themselves on the wrong end of a somewhat imbalanced refereeing performance from Howard Webb, which climaxed with Emmanuel Adebayor's debatable red card that followed a second yellow for a clash with Alvaro Arbeloa after 62 minutes.

But that display of character came at a hefty price, with Gunners captain Cesc Fabregas suffering knee ligament damage and Adebayor's suspension resulting in the pair missing the Boxing Day clash at Aston Villa.

Wenger said: "We had a nervous start and were not enough in control when we were 1-0 up. In the second half we played higher up and straight away you could see we had more control.

"We would have won this game [without the red card]. It is very disappointing. We had great spirit, great strength and commitment but we missed that final thing that makes a difference. When you are down to 10 men it is difficult.

"I don't agree with the referee's decision at all. Ask Arbeloa, Jamie Carragher was next to them - they know Adebayor didn't touch him.

"The title is won in May and we are in December. Mathematically we will fight until the end. I believe Liverpool will drop many points. I am convinced of that.

"They had four draws at home. That means they dropped eight points, why shouldn't they drop eight more in the second half of the season?"

But the vultures who circle over Emirates Stadium waiting to pick apart Arsenal's credentials can rightly argue there is just as much chance of the Gunners doing exactly the same.

Early-season defeats by Stoke, Hull, Fulham and Manchester City have removed the margin for error and raised the stakes against the better sides. The Gunners must travel to Villa, who beat them with a degree of comfort last month, without two of their most experienced players.

The situation could have been worse had Liverpool not showed a disappointing lack of ambition. With absent manager Rafa Benitez communicating via telephone as he recovers from a kidney stones operation and star striker Fernando Torres sidelined with a hamstring tear, the visitors failed to go for the kill despite a man advantage.

A win would have all but ended Arsenal's title hopes and, although Liverpool had spells in the ascendancy, there were few clear-cut chances aside from Steven Gerrard's lunging first-half effort and substitute Nabil El Zhar's stoppage-time header.

While Robin van Persie's opener came courtesy of an exquisite long-range pass from Samir Nasri before a superb take and finish, Robbie Keane's leveller was equally well dispatched but came from a hopeful Daniel Agger punt upfield.

As centre-backs Johan Djourou and William Gallas switched off to allow Keane to strike, it was more a case of Arsenal's rearguard fragility coming back to haunt them than a product of the football produced by the Reds.

Adebayor's red card actually helped galvanise the home side as the crowd felt an increasing sense of injustice at referee Webb's performance.

They had some justification too - quite how Lucas survived until the 81st minute without a yellow card to his name beggared belief.

Adebayor's two yellow cards were questionable, particularly the first for a tackle on Emiliano Insua, and whatever the merits of his challenge on Arbeloa, there was no intent other than to shield the ball.

But such is the perpetual title tightrope Arsenal walk along these days that they need everything to go their way to stay in the hunt - Chelsea can twist the knife by beating Everton tonight.

After all, resorting to the claim there is still a 'mathematical' chance is usually the last refuge of the football damned. Lose at Villa and the equation becomes virtually unsolvable.