Why beating Federer could spell trouble for Roddick

The quandary for Roddick after a surprisingly straightforward 6-1, 6-4 victory over Fernando Gonzalez was that defeat could serve him better than victory when he faces Roger Federer tomorrow.

Expending his energy in an effort to knock the world No 1 out of the tournament would perhaps be a foolish course of action given that he might have to face Rafael Nadal in a semi-final just 24 hours later.

Losing, however, would instead set Federer up for a potential last four meeting with Nadal, while a match against David Ferrer or Richard Gasquet would surely appeal far more to Roddick. Oh, the joys of round-robin.

No doubt, the harassed Nikolay Davydenko will be an interested spectator, while somewhere in Italy Alessio Di Mauro may be logging on to his internet betting account to have a flutter just in case.

Di Mauro, you may recall, is the player who has just been suspended for nine months for gambling on the outcome of tennis matches, even though none were his, nor even from tournaments in which he was participating.

Meanwhile, Davydenko's 6-4, 6-3 defeat to Federer means he can now turn his attention to fighting insinuations that he was involved in fixing a match at the Sopot tournament in August and restoring his reputation as a player of honour.

Only two days ago he had a charge of not trying overturned on appeal. But with the eyes of the ATP wide open to malpractice — to marquee players as well as soft targets, so they assure us — Roddick would be well advised to disguise any lack of effort against Federer very carefully.

He certainly said the right things after a win over Gonzalez that owed as much to the Chilean imploding and spraying the ball into tramlines, backboards and even directly into the crowd as it did to any stellar play by his opponent.

Roddick said: 'How do I plan the match against Roger? Very carefully. But there's no reason for me to be nervous. I can let it fly, just go for my shots and try to knock him out. I'm sure I'll have about seven other guys cheering for me to do that.'

Earlier, Federer had reverted to type by dispatching Davydenko in straight sets to maintain his hopes of a fourth Masters Cup title in five years. Yet it couldn't quite be called a return to business as usual because of the uncharacteristic hesitancy of his play.

The world No 1's relief was obvious as he let out a piercing cry of 'Yes' when a final Davydenko backhand flew long.

Whatever Roddick's motivations, Federer knows that a win over the American tomorrow is a necessity. Unless Gonzalez has another brainstorm against Davydenko, that is.

Crystal clear? Don't bet on it.