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End of the crunch in sight, says Templeton's Mobius

Bill Condie, Evening Standard
17 Apr 2008


Emerging markets investment specialist Mark Mobius says the credit market crisis is "near the end", and that he has been buying shares in Asian banks recently.

Mobius, the executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management, claimed that "most of the bad news is already in the market. Writedowns are coming in fast and furious".

The $376 million (£190.5 million) Templeton Emerging Markets Fund has gained 15% in the past 12 months.

He said he was buying bank shares including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China and Bank of China because their valuations had fallen.

Shares in Bank of China have lost more than 20% so far this year and are now reckoned to be selling on just 12 times expected earnings.

Mobius, 71, who has been with Templeton for more than 20 years, oversees some $47 billion of funds under management and is widely regarded as the leading fund manager in emerging market stocks.

"We've been adding in the banking sector generally," he said.

"Prices have come down to more reasonable levels."

Mobius said he was also buying energy stocks, including Petroleo Brasileiro, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, and PetroChina because of rising oil prices.

"Energy is by far the largest weighting in our portfolio," he told Bloomberg television.

He is bearish on the dollar, saying it is "not going to revive anytime soon".

Mobius's remarks follow on from those of Morgan Stanley's Asia chairman Stephen Roach, who said: "Every financial crisis is different, but at some point, they all end.

"It is hard to know if the end of this one is at hand, but there are grounds to believe that the worst of the fire-storm may be burning itself out."

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No it aint! Don't ask a barber if you need a haircut. Alt-A mortgages (no doc or liar loans)are just about to implode and likely to be double the size of the sub-prime market. Hedges are shorting the financials with the biggest exposure and are loving the mainstream hype about the financials. They see their next big wins looming ahead.

- Bobby, London, 18/04/2008 12:03
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