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Delighted traders: America's unemployment rate is down and markets on the up

Shares go soaring on brighter US jobs picture

Robert Lea
2 May 2008


Global stock markets roared ahead today as news from the giant American economy appeared to indicate the worst of the US downturn may have passed.

US employment figures - the keenly watched monthly non-farm payrolls statistics - revealed that the unemployment rate is running at 5%. That is down from the 5.1% reported a month ago and contrary to a feared slump to 5.2%.

The news sent the Dow Jones index of top American shares soaring more than 100 points at the opening bell, trading later at 13,120.2, up 110.2 points.

In London, the FTSE 100 index, already showing gains against the backdrop of Labour's hammering in the council elections, jumped even higher to 6223.5 in late trading, a rise of 136.2 points, or more than 2%.

Hopes the jobless figures show the US may yet avoid recession sent the dollar to a two-month high against a basket of global currencies with the pound slipping around a quarter of a cent against the greenback to just above $1.97.

US treasuries, or Government bonds, and gold - traditional havens for investors at a time of economic strife - were softer.

The immediate assumption from economists is the interest-rate slashing Federal Reserve can now take stock.

The US central bank has cut rates successively from 5.25% eight months ago to just 2% this week, when another quarter-point was shaved off.

A bottoming-out of US rates could have a knock-on effect in the UK, where cuts have brought interest rates down to 5% with the expectation hitherto that there could be another two or three cuts over the next year.

"While the US labour market has weakened significantly at the beginning of 2008, today's news is better than feared," said Charles Davis, chief economist at London's Centre for Economics and Business Research.

The number of US jobs shed last month came in at 20,000, lower than the 81,000 job cuts in March and significantly below market expectations of 75,000 in April.

But experts were warning the numbers may not be all they seem.

David Sloan at consultancy 4Cast said: "I don't know that it is strongly persuasive that the economy is turning a corner. It will reduce pessimism rather than increase optimism."

The detailed figures reveal that the engine room of the US economy is still hurting. Construction jobs, hit by the bombed-out US housing market, fell by 61,000 in April while jobs in manufacturing, supposedly well placed to do well from the weak dollar of recent months, were cut by 45,000. Retail sector jobs were down 27,000.

Hourly earnings figures were also down as were overtime hours worked.

"Though there is no denying the figures are stronger than expectations, the make up of this payrolls report does not strike us as particularly convincing and we continue to expect a dramatic weakening in the months ahead," said Rob Carnell, economist at ING Financial Markets.

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