Weather Tonight: 4°c Partly Cloudy Night Morning: 8°c Cloudy

Business

Bricklayer
Shaken to the foundations: analysts are busy downgrading the construction sector

Builders up against wall as housing crisis grows

Simon English
12 Jun 2008


A warning from analysts across the City that the housing market has "gone beyond the tipping point" today sent shares in the nation's homebuilders into near-freefall for the second day running.

Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs issued damning research, suggesting that a return to the negative equity and plunging house prices of the early 1990s is likely. Dresdner Kleinwort and Cazenove were also scathing about the prospects for the industry.

Merrillwarned its clients: "We believe we have gone beyond the tipping point, and are now clearly seeing a UK housing market being squeezed on opposing fronts, by a lack both of willing lenders as well as willing purchasers."

In frenzied trading, shares of Barratt Developments, Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon and others plunged, leaving investors nursing hundreds of millions of pounds in losses.

Analysts say there are increasing fears for the future of some of the companies in the sector after two days of drastic erosion of equity.

Barratt, off another 20p to 711/2p, is seen as particularly vulnerable, with dealers predicting it will have to resort to a debtfor-equity swap in order to survive. The shares have fallen by more than 80% since the start of year, making a rights issue all but impossible.

Dresdner was particularly pessimistic. It issued a note to clients advising "don't buy at any price". Dresdner analyst Alastair Stewart thinks Barratt, with debts of £1.7 billion, would have to raise at least £1 billion.

"With Barratt's share price falling with seemingly no means of visible support, we have withdrawn our target price," he said.

Barratt was tight-lipped, a spokesman saying only: "At this particular moment, there is nothing we can say."

Persimmon, the housebuilder that is about to be ejected from the FTSE 100, saw its shares lose 22p to 3651/2p.

Merrill Lynch downgraded six housebuilders, saying: "The early 1990s housing market has increasing relevance as a comparator. There is growing evidence on consumers behaving in a manner similar to that seen in the early 1990s, in that concerns over job security and falling house prices are leading to a reluctance to make a house purchase."

The housebuilders will probably have to make huge writedowns in the value of their land banks. Those who bought aggressively in the past 12 months will be hit particularly hard.

With consumers reluctant to take any risks, few new homes are being built.

Cazenove said: "Actions speak louder than words and some actions by the UK housing companies are at full volume.

Reader views (0)

 Add your view

No comments have so far been submitted.


Add your comment

 

Terms and conditions Make text area bigger You have  characters left.

We welcome your opinions. This is a public forum. Libellous and abusive comments are not allowed. Please read our House Rules.

For information about privacy and cookies please read our Privacy Policy.


 

 

  • Slump looms in eurozone as economy takes a dive Euro Europe's lingering debt crisis has pushed the eurozone closer to recession as the beleaguered single currency bloc's economy shrank for the...
  • Sports Direct is on right track Mike Ashley Sports Direct is on track to hit its "super-stretch" profit targets this year, passing the first hurdle that could see it hand founder Mike...
  • Bank may turn off printing presses as inflation drops Mervyn King The Bank of England's latest £50 billion burst of quantitative easing may be the last time it needs to resort to the printing presses
  • Online orders on mobiles lift Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza UK said its online sales have powered ahead to account for more than half of delivered sales
  • Debt deadline: Greece on brink Greek protests Hopes were rising that Greece will sign up to the first €130 billion (£109 billion) bailout from the European Union and International...
  • Frothy profits at Heineken Beer The economy might be in dire straits but Brits still love a pint down the pub
  • French banks face battering on exposure to Greek debt Jean-Laurent Bonaffé French banks look set to take one of the biggest haircuts on Greek debt as the country's largest, BNP Paribas, has said it had raised its...
  • Thorntons calls in a former Gunner to help turnaround Keith Edelman The chocolatier Thorntons has turned to the former boss of Arsenal football club to turn around its fortunes
  • LandSecs £1bn joint venture for Victoria A £1 billion-plus redevelopment is on the way at Victoria station
  • Morgan Crucible results surge on emerging market growth Morgan Crucible reported highest-ever full-year results, helped by strong performance across both its divisions, and reiterated that 2012 growth would be driven by new products and emerging markets
  •  
    Market Roundup
    WEDNESDAY UPDATE

    Barclaycard's exit leaves CPP with an identity crisis

    Bye bye Barclaycard. Nearly a year since the FSA started investigating CPP over its sales techniques, the identity theft protection firm touched a new, all-time low today after admitting it was losing one of its most high-profile clients

    More