Tonight:
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Going 15 years without a recession does have a downside - and one that is becoming ever more obvious.
People have forgotten, or never learned, that economic slowdowns are perfectly natural, that they are not necessarily to be feared and for the most part make very little real difference to most people's lives.
There are questions of degree, of course, and the depression of the 1930s was clearly a horrendous experience for anyone caught up in it. But the 1970s, which are painted these days as something out of the dark ages where civilisation teetered on the brink of destruction, did not feel remotely like that to people living through them.
There were problems with strikes and inflation, but people and companies learned to live with. Business were formed and still grew and prospered, albeit they had to work a bit harder for their money. It was not as if everyone was living in a permanent state of siege or misery. And the summers were a lot better then - or certainly 1976 was. It would be interesting to know what psychologists make of the national mood today because there seems to be almost a masochistic desire to predict recession or talk ourselves into it. Partly it is political, of course, with Tory supporters only too pleased to play up the economic problems because they add to the government's embarrassment and the perception that it has lost the plot.
It is surely no surprise either that the survey today from the item club and similar stuff on how businessmen feel from the Institute of Directors show a sharp decline in confidence and a growing reluctance to invest.
Businessmen read the newspapers, so their thinking is bound to be influenced by the barrage of stories about inflation, recession, credit crunch and house-price collapse. In such circumstances they won't stop investing, but they will defer things for six months to give the smoke time to clear and to see whether spending money and taking risks still seems like a good idea. Meanwhile, they will expect some of the fat put on in the good times quietly to be trimmed, and some dafter ideas - also known as chief executives' pet projects - will be quietly canned. none of that is disastrous.
The other thing is that in some ways the gloom suits the authorities. The governor of the Bank of England, and indeed Chancellor Alistair Darling, have both recently tried to make people expect the worst, though for different reasons.
Mervyn King understands that people who are frightened for their jobs do not press for higher wages and dwindling consumer spending makes for fewer price rises in the shops. The downbeat mood helps his fight against inflation. The Chancellor understands that if he paints a black enough picture now, anything less than disaster nearer the election-will feel like an improvement for which he and his colleagues will no doubt take credit - the more so if, as looks likely, the oil price has peaked.
As far as recession goes, certain parts of the economy - such as house building - are in one already and likely to be stuck there for another 12 months. But banking seems to be getting through the worst. Elsewhere, the fall in sterling against the euro will gradually boost exports and is encouraging more holidays at home, which is good for UK tourism. So the real message from our leaders ought to be that while times are going to be difficult - harder than we have recently been used to - it's nothing we can't cope with.
You're fired - and not suing
These are challenging times for lawyers. Several of the biggest firms are feeling squeezed - well relatively squeezed - because of the sharp downturn in mergers and acquisitions, flotations not fully compensated for yet by rights issues and corporate restructurings.
Now Travers Smith highlights a further interesting trend: a marked fall-off in the number of people taking former employers to court over wrongful dismissal. One might perhaps have expected the opposite as job losses in the City have soared since the credit crunch began a year ago.
On the other hand, the lawyers suggest there is much less stigma to being let go in bad economic times - it is a reflection on the market rather than the individual.
Employees are spared some of the humiliation to because firms try harder to ease the pain when they shed a lot of people by employing outplacement counsellors.
Having said that, people who work in the City are nothing if not pragmatic. You would have to live on Mars not to know these are difficult times where every firm is having to look at its headcount.
So in such circumstances what is the point of suing? Better simply to be grateful for the pay-off and move on. Bad news for the lawyers perhaps, but less so for everyone else.
