Weather Morning: 9°c Sunny spells Afternoon: 10°c Sunny spells

Business

Housebuilding
Sharp decline: the housebuilding and construction market fell 0.7% on last quarter

Recession warning as growth rate dives

Robert Lea
25 Jul 2008


The country is plunging into recession, economists have warned as the latest official statistics revealed the economy is juddering to a halt.

The Office for National Statistics reported the economy slowed in the second quarter to growth of just 0.2% above that recorded in first three months of the year - the worst performance in seven years and delivering another bloody nose to Gordon Brown's reeling administration.

The annual rate of growth in the economy is now at 1.6%, the lowest since 1993, when the country was coming out of its last recession.

A sharp slowdown in the housebuilding and construction market - down 0.7% on the quarter - was the main drag, with industrial manufacturing output also contracting significantly, down 0.5%.

"The UK is on the brink of recession," said Hetal Mehta, senior adviser to Ernst & Young's highly regarded economics units, the Item Club.

"That output shrank in both industry and construction suggests the underlying picture may be even worse than the headline numbers suggest."

Geoffrey Dicks, chief economist at Royal Bank of Scotland added: "After an unbroken run of 64 quarters, the first negative quarter since 1992 appears to be under way."

Paul Dales at Capital Economics said the figures had caught the Bank of England's interest-rate setting monetary policy committee badly off guard as the Bank's own economists had been forecasting a more buoyant economy with second quarter annualised growth of 2.3%.

"The UK economy has weakened dramatically even before the full impact of the credit squeeze and the housing market downturn has been felt," said Dales. "An outright recession remains our central scenario."

An economy is officially in recession when quarter-on-quarter figures show a contraction in GDP - gross domestic product - activity for two consecutive quarters. That, say economists, could happen over the final two quarters of 2008.

"All parts of the economy now look very weak," said Dales. "What's more, the worst is yet to come.

"The latest business surveys suggest that overall economic growth is grinding to a complete halt in the third quarter. The still-overvalued housing market and over-indebted household sector mean this slowdown is not going to be brief."

James Knightly at ING said the slowing growth comes as the Bank's rate-setters were hamstring by runaway inflation, which could rage as high as 5% according to some, busting the 2% target set by the Government.

"Recession seems probable but assuming commodity prices continue to moderate and wage pressures remain benign the Bank could yet lower interest rates aggressively to limit the severity of the downturn," he said.

Several economists now forecast multiple rate cuts to re-float the economy next year, taking rates as low as 3.5%.

Reader views (1)

 Add your view

We don't need economists to talk us into recession. If they were any good at their jobs they'd provide a way of getting out of it. Let's have some initiative please - not statements of the obvious that even the unqualified layman can make.

- Steve, London UK, 26/07/2008 20:11
Report abuse


Add your comment

 

Terms and conditions Make text area bigger You have  characters left.

We welcome your opinions. This is a public forum. Libellous and abusive comments are not allowed. Please read our House Rules.

For information about privacy and cookies please read our Privacy Policy.


 

 

  • Slump looms in eurozone as economy takes a dive Euro Europe's lingering debt crisis has pushed the eurozone closer to recession as the beleaguered single currency bloc's economy shrank for the...
  • Sports Direct is on right track Mike Ashley Sports Direct is on track to hit its "super-stretch" profit targets this year, passing the first hurdle that could see it hand founder Mike...
  • Bank may turn off printing presses as inflation drops Mervyn King The Bank of England's latest £50 billion burst of quantitative easing may be the last time it needs to resort to the printing presses
  • Online orders on mobiles lift Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza UK said its online sales have powered ahead to account for more than half of delivered sales
  • Thorntons calls in a former Gunner to help turnaround Thorntons The chocolatier Thorntons has turned to the former boss of Arsenal football club to turn around its fortunes
  • Frothy profits at Heineken Beer The economy might be in dire straits but Brits still love a pint down the pub
  • French banks face battering on exposure to Greek debt French banks look set to take one of the biggest haircuts on Greek debt as the country's largest, BNP Paribas, has said it had raised its provisions on Greek sovereign bonds to 75%
  • LandSecs £1bn joint venture for Victoria A £1 billion-plus redevelopment is on the way at Victoria station
  • Morgan Crucible results surge on emerging market growth Morgan Crucible reported highest-ever full-year results, helped by strong performance across both its divisions, and reiterated that 2012 growth would be driven by new products and emerging markets
  • Hotel giant goes for Olympic gold as profits wow the City Intercontinental Hotels Hotelier InterContinental Hotels is looking to emerging markets and especially China to drive future growth
  •  
    Market Roundup
    TUESDAY UPDATE

    Valentine's massacre as City dumps Hampson

    No one likes getting rejected on Valentine's Day

    More