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Car sales slump
The worst month since 1966: New car sales slumped in August in the latest sign of the economic downturn
Car sales slump Car sales slump

After car sales take a dive, there is still a glimmer of hope

Evening Standard   8 Sep 2008


Not since England had a football team capable of winning the World Cup, when the country went out and blew several months' housekeeping on the new-fangled technology of the television, have fewer cars been sold in Britain.

Want the best economic indicator of the credit crisis that is hobbling the consumer market - even though it is a figure largely ignored by the Bank of England or mainstream City economists? Then take a look at the latest car sales figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.

The statistics are staggering. With just 63,225 new cars sold last month it is the worst August sales month since 1966. They are down, including fleet sales, by 18% on last year while sales of cars for private use are down 23% and to businesses off 36%.

While August is now traditionally a slow month before the September new registration, the SMMT is forecasting sales falling 10% in the last four months of 2008 and down another 4.4% in 2009.

The figures are also a fascinating insight into societal changes.

The 4x4 status-symbol, gas-guzzling Chelsea Tractor is suddenly deeply out of fashion. Instead, the superminis have now grabbed more than a third of the market - up four percentage points in a year, while fuel-efficient diesel-powered motors, such as the best-selling diesel VW Golf, now account for a record 44% of the market.

The cheap Ford Focus is being outsold by the even cheaper Vauxhall Corsa.

Marques that are bucking the trend include Smart and Skoda while the keenly priced Audi and Subaru are faring far better than their more expensive big car rival s Mercedes Benz and BMW.

Howard Archer, chief economist at Global Insight, ticks off the causes: "Muted disposable income growth, a serious squeeze on purchasing power from sharply rising utility bills and elevated food prices, higher mortgage repayments for many householders, sharply falling house prices, major concerns over the economy, higher debt levels, increasingly rising unemployment."

It is little wonder, he concludes, "that consumers have become markedly reluctant - or indeed unable - to splash out on big-ticket items".

This, seemingly, adds up to Doomsday for the motor dealers.

"With concerns over recession, we would expect the new car registrations market to be weaker going forwards," says Citigroup analyst James Targett.

Pointing out that sales to private and business users make - or perhaps now break - the forecourt dealers. "There is little dealers can do to combat this decline, instead focusing on aftersales penetration, cost-cutting and margin protection."

The four main stock market quoted dealers are hurting:

Pendragon
The biggest and the worst-hit of Britain's motor dealership chains which trades as Stratstone at the top end of the market and Evans Halshaw for volume models. Pendragon's shares are now worth less than 10% of their value 15 months ago with profits down more than 30% and the dividend slashed 75%.

Few analysts can find anything positive to say about Pendragon. One potential upside is that the stock is now so cheap it must be attracting takeover attention.

Another is that the management team of Trevor Finn and Sir Nigel Rudd have been running this business for so long - since the 1980s - that they know how to trade out of a recession.

Inchcape
With its shares having only halved over the last year, Inchcape could be described as the darling of the sector.

Investors like the fact that selling cars in the UK is just one part (albeit a substantial part) of an international business that takes in Europe, Hong Kong, Singapore and a fast-growing Russian business.

Inchcape is unapologetically upmarket in the marques it sells in the UK. It argues that its UK sales falls are unlikely to be as bad as the rest of the market. If it fails to hit those targets however it could yet take a further caning in the City.

Lookers
Originally out of Northern Ireland and with penny-watching Ulstermen at the helm, Lookers has had its attractions to investors for not buying archrival Reg Vardy at the top market (it was outbid by Pendragon) and for its gradual mainland UK expansion.

Even so its shares are down 75% since the spring of 2007. That is despite its long-argued position that it has the best after-sales set-up of the UK dealers and, goes the theory, whatever else happens in a downturn, cars still need to be serviced and repaired.

Vertu Motors
The new kid on the block was set up by motor folk who learned their trade under Vardy's Sir Peter Vardy.

Its stock is down around 60% year on year but the shrewder investors like its argument that it can be a successful consolidator at the smaller end of the market to build on Bristol Street Motors, its biggest acquisition.

Though analysts reckon it will achieve the best like-for-like sales of its rivals this year, that is against the weakest comparatives and the business cannot escape the fact it is in a horrid market.

Yet for all that, the canniest investors are now asking: is all the bad news, bad forecasts and bad perceptions already out there and have we reached the turn when motor dealers once more become an attractive buy?

Who knows? But take a look at the share price graphs of Pendragon, Inchcape, Lookers and Vertu: they are now all up by double digits from their lows recorded in recent weeks.

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