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Dark doings: when the Treasury finally got round to naming the banks - and one building society - it viewed as eligible to benefit from the bailout plan, some were miffed to find themselves on the list

Analysis: Shedding some light on a bank rescue that’s hard to figure out

Nick Goodway and Hugo Duncan
10 Oct 2008


Whether you opt for the Balti bailout or the Treasury Tandoori takeaway, there is no getting away from the fact that by the end of this week the Government's £500 billion rescue package for the banks leaves as many questions unanswered as answered.

The market reaction remains one of bemusement rather than enlightenment, with the majority of analysts rating most of the High Street banks a sell.

Even their chief executives are in the dark about just how the Government will implement a package that appeared to have been made on the hoof in the early hours of Wednesday.

Here we try to answer some key questions:

What's on offer?

Up to £50 billion of new capital in the form of interest-bearing preference shares, needed to boost the banks' capital into the safety zone.
The current special liquidity scheme that lets banks swap illiquid assets for liquid ones is doubled to £200 billion, and about £250 billion of Government guarantees enable banks to refinance their own debts in the bond market.

Who's in and who's out of the bailout?

Well, the Treasury — when it finally got round to issuing its press release — claimed that seven banks and one building society “have confirmed their participation in a Government-supported recapitalisation scheme”.
It named them as Abbey, Barclays, HBOS, HSBC, Lloyds TSB, Royal Bank of Scotland and Standard Chartered and Nationwide.
That left several banks on the list feeling a bit miffed. Why, for starters, was Standard Chartered even in the line-up since it has no discernible presence on the British High Street? HSBC and Abbey made it clear pretty quickly they had no intention of using the recapitalisation scheme, but might use the other facilities.
By late Thursday, even prime candidates for recapitalisation such as Barclays said they would prefer to raise fresh capital from shareholders, rather than the Government.

Is the devil in the detail?

Of course. And we haven't got much of that yet. One of the key questions is what return the Government demands for putting taxpayers' money into banks. As one banker put it: “If they set a 2% coupon on the preference shares, we'd grab all we could with both hands. But they won't, will they?” Best bet is the Government will demand an interest rate or coupon about the level of a medium-term gilt, currently between 4.5% and 5%.

Aren't there other conditions?

The Government said banks that take its capital will have to look at their dividend policies and executive remuneration while also committing to lend to small business and home buyers.
It is very difficult to see how these policies can be set and, more specifically, how they will be policed.
The Government wants to be seen to be hard, and the banks that require the cash will pay at least lip service to its demands.
But for existing investors, the threat to dividends is their main worry.
Most analysts expect the banks to cut their dividends sharply, if indeed they pay anything at all for the next couple of years. Those who manage a payout will only be able to do so if they severely cut their costs. Their highest cost is their wage bill.

What does it mean for bank jobs?

It doesn't look good for RBS chief executive Sir Fred Goodwin or his chairman Sir Tom McKillop, who have been in the firing line since splashing out what now looks an extortionate €14.3 billion (£11.2 billion) on ABN Amro's investment banking and Asian units.
Goodwin and McKillop then went cap in hand to shareholders for £12 billion to bolster the bank's finances, so a bailout by the taxpayer now would almost certainly be the final nail in the coffin for the so-called Scottish Mafia.
And “good riddance” will be the verdict of many in the City and beyond, so low is the esteem in which bank bosses are now held by the public.
But there is more concern about the 800,000-strong banking workforce in Britain. If banks are to maintain any dividend payments to shareholders, costs will have to come down.
The biggest cost to a bank is its staff, and this is where savings could come.
If that is the case, prepare for a mighty battle, as the unions will not take job cuts lying down.
Just listen to what Unite deputy general secretary Graham Goddard has to say: “There are hundreds of thousands of staff working for the financial services in branches, call centres and back offices right across the country.
They are not the culprits of the credit crunch, and we are not prepared to allow them to become the victims. It is time to hold employers to account. Their disgraceful behaviour and cavalier attitudes to lending and risk have brought a highly profitable industry to the brink of collapse.”
Of the banks most likely to take part in the plan, Barclays has 135,000 staff, HBOS has 57,000, Lloyds TSB 58,000 and RBS almost 230,000. Nervous times indeed.

What does it mean for mortgage rates

It should help, but don't hold your breath. The hope is that as confidence returns to the system, borrowing rates between banks will fall, leading to cheaper loans and mortgages for customers.
Millions of households have already seen mortgage rates fall as a result of this week's emergency interest rate cut from 5% to 4.5%, and further cuts are likely to follow.
But some lenders have put up mortgage costs and the bailout and rate cut have so far done little to bring down the cost of borrowing between banks. Libor, the London interbank offered rate, rose yesterday to 6.28%, leaving it well above the official rate of 4.5%.
Until Libor falls significantly, new mortgages and millions of current deals are likely to remain expensive.

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