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<b>Commentary: </b>Luck plays a role in Varley's great escape

13 Oct 2008


Say what you like about the table tennis-playing chief executive of Barclays, John Varley, but today he has every right to look a bit smug.

As rivals Sir Fred Goodwin and Andy Hornby head for the door and Eric Daniels has second thoughts on Lloyds TSB's takeover of HBOS, Varley emerges with Barclays' independence intact and a better-than-evens chance of raising all the new capital he wants from existing shareholders.

They say every great boss has two great ideas in each career. Varley's were: first to bid for Dutch bank ABN Amro and second, to drop the bid for ABN Amro.

To be more precise, when Barclays launched its bid in July 2007, it took the precaution of bringing in sovereign wealth funds to provide some of the cash. China Development Bank and Singapore's Temasek bought £2.5 billion of Barclays shares whether or not it went ahead.

That not only gave Barclays extra capital before most people realised it might be needed but opend the doors to other sovereign funds. They have been usefully tapped up not just today but also for the smart move on Lehman.

It was Varley and his board who decided the RBS consortium had pushed the ABN auction too high and walked away with a €200 million break fee. RBS was forced into a rescue rights issue and bid partner Fortis has all but vanished.

It may be luck as much as judgment but Varley has avoided nationalisation.

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