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Economists: Britain's in recession and it will get worse

16 Oct 2008


Britain is already in the grips of a recession and the economy will shrink in 2009, economists said tonight.

A poll of 24 economists found 23 thought the UK was already in recession. Most predicted the Bank of England would slash interest rates further with the average forecast being that rates will be at 4% by the end of this year and 3% in the third quarter of next year.

Respondents were split on how bad the downturn would be compared with past recessions, with eight saying it would be shallower, seven average, and six deeper.

"I've got no problems with saying that (we are in a recession). In the '70s, '80s and '90s we had very deep recessions," said Michael Saunders at Citigroup.

"I think this will be similar-ish to the early '90s, which wasn't quite as bad as the '70s and '80s," Saunders added.

The British economy ground to a halt in the second quarter, even before events in financial markets over the past month sent consumer confidence plummeting and sparked widespread fears of a global recession.

Monetary policy committee member Andrew Sentance said on Monday Britain's economy was likely to shrink in the second half of this year and the chances of a severe downturn had increased.

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