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Terror - at idea of 2% slowdown

Richard Orange
09.12.08

Cheaper petrol, mortgages and cars for Indians is the last thing the architects of last month's terrorist invasion of Mumbai would have had in mind.

But since the ruling Congress Party lost both its home minister and the chief minister of Maharashtra in shamefaced resignations at the cack-handed handling of the attacks, they're pulling out every conceivable stop to keep the economy trundling along until elections early next year.

Since Prime Minister Manmohan Singh took over the finance ministry a week ago, he has been relentless.

On Friday, he slashed petrol and diesel prices. On Saturday, the central bank cut its key interest rate by another 100 basis points. Then on Sunday, the government unleashed a new £4 billion stimulus package, combining a boost to government spending, across-the-board cuts in export duty and targeted aid for key industries. Next in line is support for housing and car loans.

So far - as a sign of just how badly Indian industry is feeling the squeeze - the reaction has been to complain loudly it is just not enough.

Even a package of this size leaves the government's fiscal targets in shreds, with the real deficit now around 10%. Quadrupling the stimulus package, which is what the Confederation of Indian Industry is demanding, would mean diving deep into irresponsible populism.

But the reserve bank's rate cuts aren't yet filtering through into easier loans either for companies or for people in general. So a fiscal boost was needed to keep the growth rate above 7% this financial year. It will probably work. But judging by the voices of panicked industrialists, the outgoing finance minister's promise that growth will bounce back to 9% next year looks fanciful.

In the grimmest of scenarios, it could even fall below 5%. And that prospect, still unlikely, will strike more fear into India's ruling politicians than even terrorists.

* Christmas has come early for many Mumbai expatriates (or for many of the Americans here, Thanksgiving has come late). Shaken by the attacks, many families have brought their flights home forward by a fortnight.

* English Heritage, owner of Stonehenge and countless crumbling castles, is lobbying to help rebuild the Taj, the 105-year-old hotel ravaged by the terror attacks. “It's as much our heritage as it's their heritage,” explains Philip Davies, English Heritage's director of planning and development. “Mumbai is one of the great Victorian cities of the world.”

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