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Market report: Property falls eject top builder from the Footsie

9 Dec 2008


Taylor Wimpey's fall from grace among stock-market investors will be completed at the close of business tonight when its shares drop out of the Footsie 250 index.

It comes just 10 months after the shares were relegated from the blue-chip Footsie 100 index. The move will round off a miserable year for backers of the debt-laden builder, who have seen the value of their investment collapse along with the housing market.

Its shares started the year at 202¼p, valuing the group at £2.13 billion. Today, they were changing hands 0.13p higher at just 10p, valuing it at just over £100 million.

Taylor Wimpey has had to write off large chunks of the value of its remaining portfolio of unsold homes and its land bank as their value plummets along with that of the rest of the property market. Meanwhile, it continues to stagger under the weight of £1.8 billion of debt, about which it is currently in talks with its bankers.

Shares generally rallied strongly from opening falls, still comforted by president-elect Barack Obama's plans for fiscal stimulus of the US economy. That enabled City investors to shrug off the continued deterioration in retail sales and evidence of the biggest slump in manufacturing output for 30 years. The FTSE 100 index extended yesterday's lead with a rise of 81.1 points to 4381.2, having briefly touched a low for the day of 4232.6 in thin trading. The FTSE 250 climbed 222 points to 6170.9.

Wall Street this afternoon ran into profit-taking in the wake of yesterday's gains, leaving the Dow 77.26 points lower at 8856.92.

Credit Suisse has brought some seasonal cheer to investors. It remains "small overweight" on equities, having upgraded in October because low interest rates offer "once-in-50-years value". It adds that shares also offer good value for money and that - with all policymakers in panic-response mode - there are opportunities to be had.

Robert Buckland at Citigroup is also optimistic about 2009, saying: "We believe macro fundamentals will determine equity-market performance."

He is looking for recession and reflation rather than depression and deflation, and adds: "Ultimately, this should be positive for equities and other risk-asset classes."

Mining shares came under the spotlight after Deutsche Bank cut its rating on some of the big metal producers and lowered its target price for their shares. Only platinum producer Lonmin managed to keep its head above water with a rise of 38½p to 620p, despite struggling to hold on to its place in the Footsie during tonight's regular quarterly reshuffle.

Mexican miner Fresnillo, 2.2p better at 140.5p, also faces the drop with Kazakhmys, up 14¾p at 244¾p. Xstrata firmed 4½p to 637½p despite Société Gé*érale slashing its target from 1800p to 1000p. It still rates the shares a buy but is worried about the lack of visibility with regard to prospects.

Other companies threatened with the chop from the Footsie 100 include buses and coaches operator Stagecoach, 15.9p better at 130.7p, Invensys, up 20.5p at 159.9p, and oil-industry support services specialist John Wood Group, 13.4p higher at 169.1p.

British Airways fell 6.5p to 166p, making it one of the biggest casualties among blue-chips. Industry estimates claim that joint airline losses this year will top £3.4 billion.

The falling oil price has forced Royal Bank of Scotland's broking arm to cut its target for the explorers. It has dropped BowLeven, 5p firmer at 38p, from 320p to 200p, Cairn Energy, 98p better at 1586p, from 3000p to 2850p and Dana Petroleum, 41p higher at 836p, from 1800p to 1495p.

It has also reduced Premier Oil, 57p better at 782p, from 1200p to 1000p, Salamander Energy, 1¼p firmer at 105½p, from 245p to 195p, Soco International, 30p stronger at 1406p, from 1950p to 1850p, Tullow Oil, 3¾p firmer at 494¾p, from 1030p to 950p and Venture Production, up 24¼p at 364½p, from 750p to 495p.

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