Weather Tonight: 4°c Partly Cloudy Night Morning: 8°c Cloudy

Business

Bureau de change
Short changed: Many bureaux are already offering less than €1 for £1 after fees

Sterling dives yet again but traders look for a rebound

Bill Condie
29 Dec 2008


The pound crashed to a fresh low against the euro today but many analysts predict it is set for a rebound.

Amid more grim news on house prices, sterling crashed to just €1.021, down a huge 2.6 cents on Boxing Day's close. That meant a euro buys a massive 97.78p.

Bureaux de change were offering about €0.985 this afternoon.

If the pound hits parity, it would be the first time since the single European currency's launch a decade ago.

The bleak outlook for the British economy, combined with expectations that the Bank of England may cut interests rates faster and further than the European Central Bank has kept pressure on the currency.

Today's Hometrack data showed house prices tumbled 8.7% in 2008, led by a 10.1% slide in London.

Nevertheless, some traders believe the British currency may be near the bottom. Sterling will strengthen 14% against the euro in 2009, according to the median forecast of 42 analysts and strategists surveyed by Bloomberg.

“We will see signs of life in the UK economy sooner than in the eurozone,” said Henrik Gullberg, a strategist with Deutsche Bank in London.

Others said the eurozone's own problems could come into play soon.

“While the outlook for the UK economy is pretty terrible, we're at a stage where that's already in the price,” said Ian Stannard, a senior currency strategist in London at BNP Paribas.

“The big shock next year is going to come from the eurozone as the economy contracts much more than currently expected. The ECB will have to wake up and start cutting rates. That's going to really damage the euro.”

The pound has also weakened against the dollar and yen, falling 26% against the greenback and 40% against the Japanese currency, the biggest declines since at least 1972.

The speed and depth of losses against other currencies may add to pressure for a rebound as traders consider the wisdom of bets on further sharp falls.

But the economic data continue to be grim. Britain's gross domestic product shrank at an annualised rate of 0.6% in the third quarter, the first drop in 16 years, the Office of National Statistics said before Christmas.

Forecasts by economists say the economy will contract 1.4% next year.

Reader views (3)

 Add your view

Could you arrange a huge rebound early 2009 as I am going to the States. I have every confidence in Flash Gordon and his gang of fruitcakes.

- Roger Slade, Winchester, Hampshire, England, 29/12/2008 17:02
Report abuse

Sounds like a lot of experts trying to catch a falling piano here! It's hard to see how the UK can recover quicker than the Eurozone with services down the tubes and just about no manufacuring base to fall back on.

- Paul, London, 29/12/2008 12:40
Report abuse

These must be the same strategic financial geniuses that saw the sub-prime credit mad lending debacle coming. Or, are they a new lot of geniuses?

- Frederick, London UK, 29/12/2008 12:40
Report abuse


Add your comment

 

Terms and conditions Make text area bigger You have  characters left.

We welcome your opinions. This is a public forum. Libellous and abusive comments are not allowed. Please read our House Rules.

For information about privacy and cookies please read our Privacy Policy.


 

 

  • Slump looms in eurozone as economy takes a dive Euro Europe's lingering debt crisis has pushed the eurozone closer to recession as the beleaguered single currency bloc's economy shrank for the...
  • Sports Direct is on right track Mike Ashley Sports Direct is on track to hit its "super-stretch" profit targets this year, passing the first hurdle that could see it hand founder Mike...
  • Bank may turn off printing presses as inflation drops Mervyn King The Bank of England's latest £50 billion burst of quantitative easing may be the last time it needs to resort to the printing presses
  • Online orders on mobiles lift Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza UK said its online sales have powered ahead to account for more than half of delivered sales
  • Debt deadline: Greece on brink Greek protests Hopes were rising that Greece will sign up to the first €130 billion (£109 billion) bailout from the European Union and International...
  • Frothy profits at Heineken Beer The economy might be in dire straits but Brits still love a pint down the pub
  • French banks face battering on exposure to Greek debt Jean-Laurent Bonaffé French banks look set to take one of the biggest haircuts on Greek debt as the country's largest, BNP Paribas, has said it had raised its...
  • Thorntons calls in a former Gunner to help turnaround Keith Edelman The chocolatier Thorntons has turned to the former boss of Arsenal football club to turn around its fortunes
  • LandSecs £1bn joint venture for Victoria A £1 billion-plus redevelopment is on the way at Victoria station
  • Morgan Crucible results surge on emerging market growth Morgan Crucible reported highest-ever full-year results, helped by strong performance across both its divisions, and reiterated that 2012 growth would be driven by new products and emerging markets
  •  
    Market Roundup
    WEDNESDAY UPDATE

    Barclaycard's exit leaves CPP with an identity crisis

    Bye bye Barclaycard. Nearly a year since the FSA started investigating CPP over its sales techniques, the identity theft protection firm touched a new, all-time low today after admitting it was losing one of its most high-profile clients

    More