Morning:
8°c
It's a bit early to write an epitaph for Shanghai in 2008 but some things are becoming clearer about winners and losers. Santa had a particularly bad year. Like a number of export items, he and his team just didn't make the journey west. Orders were cancelled or failed to materialise, and an awful lot of red and white goods were left on the shelf.
Santa doesn't really fit into the Shanghai pantheon of House, Wealth and other useful Gods. But put on a bargain, and even reindeers and snowmen can be shifted. Heavy discounting during December saw a brisk trade in Christmas paraphernalia to Shanghainese. Some items may even find a use in Chinese New Year celebrations later this month.
Employees were under pressure. Graduates had great difficulty finding places and many were totally unsuccessful. Top students stopped queuing at the doors of foreign businesses and went for the boring but safer option of large state-owned enterprises. Expatriates started heading home in their droves. Too expensive for today's market, they are being replaced by locals or not at all.
All businesses, while mindful of redundancy payments, began taking the opportunity to replace weaker staff with the better-quality individuals that find themselves unexpectedly on the market.
For those involved with the UK, currency movements took their toll. From an exchange rate of £1 equalling about 15 renminbi for most of 2007, the year saw it take a stomach churning ride down to 9.97 by New Year's Eve — not a happy position for exporters.
Only UK expatriates paid in local currency found some consolation, provided they were still employed. Identifying other winners is proving a bit difficult at the moment.
*Counter-cyclical investment opportunities are at a premium in difficult market conditions. One product that will be in great demand at the end of January is firecrackers. When it comes to driving out the evil spirits of the Year of the Rat and keeping them away from the incoming Ox, a very noisy display indeed will be required.
*A new accessory for outdoor New Year's Eve celebrations last week was the furry bear hat, complete with ears, eyes and snout. While not exactly becoming, they did look very cosy in the bitter cold. Ignoring any suggestion that this was a portent of market performance in 2009, the celebrating crowds were probably pinning their hopes on the Ox actually turning out to be a bull.
