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You could be forgiven for thinking the go-ahead for the unwanted and unwarranted construction of a third runway at Heathrow airport is nothing but a carbon dioxide-filled smokescreen.
The decision appears to have attracted every tree-hugger (to use the parlance of Transport Secretary Geoff Hoon) and green-tinged celebrity in Britain to an unattractive one-acre field outside an unattractive village west of London.
To the conspiracy theorist, however, given that a third Heathrow runway should be nowhere near the top of the Government's agenda, darker forces are abroad.
A ratcheting-up of the CO2 emanating from Heathrow is nothing compared with the environmental issues surrounding the upcoming construction of at least six new major nuclear power stations producing 12 gigawatts, or around 20% of the country's electricity. Aircraft pollution is one thing. The production of toxic waste and its disposal, as well as the general doubts over the nuclear industry's record on safety issues and human health, is very much another.
So the attractions of a Heathrow smokescreen are clear: tie up the massed ranks of Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth and their fellow travellers to a field next to the M4 when the real business of the end of the decade is at hand — the construction of nuclear power plants on Anglesey, in the West Country, on the South Coast, and in Essex and East Anglia.
Department for Business figures show how breathtakingly quickly Britain will be consuming more power than it can produce.
Coal fires 40% of Britain's generated electricity but the dirty plants have to close within the next six years under European environmental law.
Nuclear used to produce about 20% of UK electricity, a figure that has fallen currently to 13% because of the chronic shutdowns of a 30-year-old fleet, much of which in any case is going to be out of commission by the middle of the next decade.
If the current level of installed windfarms remain marginal to the total amount of electricity generated — let's say small single-digit percentages — the Business department figures predict the lights will go off some time in 2015.
Nuclear has, belatedly, become the Government's panacea, and the nuclear-friendly French government-backed EDF was the first to ride in as the white knight.
In the autumn, EDF acquired the UK's ageing existing nuclear fleet of eight power stations owned by British Energy for £12.5 billion, with the commitment to build four new reactors by 2017 capable of producing in excess of 6GW. These are likely to be installed on the existing nuclear sites of Sizewell in Suffolk and Hinkley Point in Somerset.
Despite the costs of such construction — 6GW is reckoned to add up to £20 billion of capital expenditure — the rest of Europe's major powerhouses have woken up to the opportunities.
E.On and RWE of Germany, already major energy players in the UK, have teamed up and pledged to build another 6GW of nuclear reactors.
Up for grabs immediately in a Government sell-off is land next to BNFL's old magnox stations at Bradwell in Essex, Oldbury in Somerset and Wylfa in North Wales. Iberdrola, the Spanish owner, is said to be preparing to counterbid against the Germans, as are the Scandinavians of Vattenfall. All of which appears to be good for the upcoming energy crunch.
But it has led some in the City to wonder why on earth the Centrica/British Gas group has got involved in the nuclear question.
Centrica was presented as the Union Jack-waving buyer of 25% of the EDF takeover of British Energy, which would cost the British group £3.1 billion. Twelve months ago, Centrica executives were happy to admit they knew nothing about nuclear, and it was not really their thing.Their subsequent involvement in the EDF deal appears to have more than a little Whitehall arm-twisting written all over it.
Despite raising much of the cash needed to fund its part of the takeover in an autumn rights issue, Centrica has yet to sign the deal. Citigroup analyst Peter Atherton is one who believes Centrica chief executive Sam Laidlaw should think again and use the cash for something else.
The British Energy takeover deal is priced at 774p a share — for a stock, says Atherton, that given energy price falls should not be rated at more than £5 a share. The deal will dilute Centrica earnings per share this year and the predicted return on investment is way below the usual rates of return targeted by Centrica. On nuclear, Centrica would find itself completely in the hands of EDF, an uncomfortable position for a company that otherwise competes with the French tooth and nail in the UK electricity and gas markets. So does it really make sense for Centrica — a company that has been much maligned by consumer groups — to become embroiled in new nuclear? After all, it is an environmental issue that over the next decade is likely to make the third Heathrow runway demonstrations look like a luvvies' tea party in a west London field.
