Morning:
6°c
I don't hold any brief for Sir Ronnie Cohen but I well recall sitting with the private-equity veteran and listening to his warning that unless something was done about the widening gap between rich and poor, riots would result.
Unless it cleaned up its act and started displaying a sense of humility, suggested Ronnie, the protesters' target would be the super-wealthy kings of his own industry.
There was a bit of me, I admit, that thought he was guilty of hyperbole. Yes, we'd seen union campaigns against job losses but nothing that hinted at outright violence.
Nevertheless, crimes against property increased, every new property development in London seemed to come with security gates and, last summer, the billionaire Flavio Briatore and his friends were pelted with sand as they headed for a beach restaurant in Sardinia. Now there's news of designer boutiques handing out plain bags so their customers are not targeted.
Something is stirring and it's worrying. The recession is bringing to the surface tensions that in the good times lay dormant. Protectionism is becoming the new mantra. Because we're a small, crowded island with a lack of natural resources and a much-diminished manufacturing base, we rely on imports to service our needs.
Our efforts at putting up the barriers to entry cannot extend much beyond the clarion cry of British jobs for British workers. Popular as the call is, and no matter it was given added impetus by the Prime Minister speaking to the TUC, his remark doesn't stand up to scrutiny (see panel, right).
Others, though, do not share our weakness. In the US, the temptation for Congress to try full-blooded protectionism if the stimulus package does not bring results, and so far it isn't, is enormous. Elections are looming in two years and self-interest may push politicians down the popular xenophobia path.
The foundations are being laid. President Obama chooses to echo Roosevelt but it's worth remembering the latter's New Deal was also skilfully protectionist.
His country, if it wished, could withdraw behind Fortress America, linking closely with Canada and Mexico in the North American Free Trade area.
It has a huge internal market, access to energy in Canada and it could say to hell with the rest of the world, which would be kept out by punitive tariffs. The US would be able to rebuild its industries and modernise them.
The policy has an added attraction in that it would wreck China and restore US economic hegemony. The rest of the world would be powerless to resist; the US still retains its military might, although for how long is a question that detains the hawks in Washington and also convinces them of the urgent need to shore up its financial defences.
The US must be impressed upon to desist, to be assured that, however appealing it may be, the wider consequence for the world would be disastrous and for America protectionism would result in isolation. Time is running out: in Michigan, Ohio and the other swing states, the demands to sod the world and rebuild America are growing.
If all this sounds like something out of a Tom Clancy novel, so be it. I thought the same when I listened to Ronnie. But hasn't the whole saga of the credit crunch to date read like a giant thriller in real time? As the Prime Minister let slip last week, we're now at the chapter headed The Great Depression.
• What price British jobs for British workers? As the Government singularly fails to quash the argument - probably fearing votes are at stake - new research suggests what might be lost. Prepared by Oxford Economics for the pro-European Business for New Europe, it was presented at the offices of Accenture.
A key finding is that 1.6 million UK citizens live and work in other EU states - their jobs are at risk if the UK chooses the protectionist course.
Caroline Flint, the minister for Europe, was asked if there was a case for the Government doing more to promote openness, not least to safeguard those 1.6 million? "Yes," she replied firmly. Gordon Brown may have said British jobs for British workers, but at least one of his colleagues knows the score.
Who will take Tesco crown
At some stage, in the not-too-distant future, Sir Terry Leahy will leave Tesco.
Until now, the idea of life after Terry has not been occupying many minds at the store group's Cheshunt HQ. Leahy, the CEO, has seemed immovable, a success story that would run and run.
But a ski-ing accident suffered by Leahy last year and the experience of BP, where Lord Browne stayed on too long and the end, when it came, was far from smooth, have made some of those in the Tesco hierarchy think the unthinkable.
What is occupying minds, I hear, is whether to stick with someone who is very experienced, has risen with Terry but still has time on his side, such as a Tim Mason or Andy Higginson, or to do what the Tories did and drop a generation.
It's not lost on people that "picking a Cameron" is precisely what Tesco did when Leahy was chosen to succeed Lord MacLaurin. Leahy joined the board in 1992 when he was 36. Five years later and he was chief executive. And look what happened.
The talk is of doing the same. Of the names being mentioned, three stand out. Colin Holmes was the UK financial director and has a strong City profile.
Rarely, he was given a nine-month sabbatical by Leahy, during which time he journeyed from Alaska to the tip of South America. When he came back, Leahy gave him the vital post of director of fresh food,
There's James McCann, who ran Tesco in Malaysia, and is now its boss in Hungary, which is one of its best markets. McCann ticks other criteria for what can be an insular organisation: he's ex-Mars and ex-Sainsbury's.
Intriguingly, Laura Wade-Gery crops up. Not only is she a woman but she heads the entire Tesco.com operation. She has also been allowed to take up an external directorship, at Trinity Mirror.
Who to watch? Don't rule out McCann or Wade-Gery but keep an eye on Holmes. There, I've said it. That probably means it will be someone else. Sorry, Colin.
Iceland? It's not so clean after all...
When I visited Iceland last year for the first time, I'd never breathed air so clean. Sadly, there must be something polluting it now - since level-headedness has been abandoned.
First, Jon Asgeir Johannesson harps on about how good his Baugur company is, as it moves for bankruptcy protection. There may be some value in there but it's mainly a ragtag collection of holdings in struggling British retailers, most of them up to their ears in debt.
Then there's Hallgrimur Helgason, a leading Icelandic writer, who says the people now understand "it wasn't so clever. It was just a giant loan castle - loans upon loans".
Hallgrimur, where have you been all these years? Landing there last year and gulping in the pure oxygen, I experienced another sensation: looking at the beautiful but empty landscape, I soon realised there was nothing there, that Iceland's economic prosperity was one giant con.
