Forget the Great Depression of the 1930s. Economists and City analysts are looking into the history books to try to make sense of the mess we're in and they're pointing to two other periods: the early 1920s and the 1870s.
One top UK banking analyst, who does not want his firm to be named in case he is accused of being a doom merchant, tells City Spy: “The early 1920s were characterised by falling prices and deflation and plunging GDP, which sounds pretty familiar.
“Once unemployment reached levels of between 9% and 10%, it seemed to reach a tipping-point, leading to social unrest.”
Less bearish colleagues at his firm describe this thought-provoking parallel as his “World War Three scenario”.
The analyst adds: “1873 was another great deflationary crisis, not just in the UK but across Europe, and was caused by America's entry to the global grain market. There were weak asset prices for 20 years after that and loads of middle- and small-sized businesses were wiped out.”
Lumme!

* City veteran David Buik has also been looking into his crystal ball: “Remember the miners' strike; remember Toxteth? Trust me; they will look like vicarage tea parties if this matter gets out of hand.”

Mandy scores a bonus point

Business Secretary Lord Mandelson isn't playing games with his Cabinet colleagues, is he?
Mandelson this week gave a speech in which he urged “governments” not to be too hasty in acting to curb bankers' bonuses, saying they should not be bounced into “hurried judgments because we fear accusations of indecision”.
Lest the media should miss his words, delivered in New York, he issued an advance copy of the speech.
An hour or so later, Chancellor Alistair Darling makes his big announcement on... dramatic curbs to bonuses at Royal Bank of Scotland. Looks like further evidence of a rift in the Cabinet between those led by Harriet Harman keen to drag the bankers off to Tyburn and those led by Mandy favouring less punitive treatment of his banker friends.

* Mandelson is a wag. City Spy hears he spoke at a private dinner for the Marketing Group of Great Britain at Claridge's earlier this month where he dispensed his wisdom to the 200 or so assembled
top marketeers.
Among his bons mots, Mandy declared: “I am strangely attracted to David Cameron.”
He was joking, right?

* Now Bank of England rate-setter David “Danny” is going to quit the monetary policy committee, City Spy hopes he will write his inside account of Britain's collapse into recession. Blanchflower, it will be recalled, was the sole voice on the MPC warning for the last two years of economic doom. As a self-confessed employment-data geek, Blanchflower has had a front-row seat on just how the recession has unfolded — and might have been averted. But what to call the putative tome? If referencing his colleagues on the MPC, it could be titled Ship of Fools. If more personal, perhaps King and I. Or if wishing to titillate the tabloids: The Naked Old Lady.

A reluctant hearthrob? Oh no, not our Robert

No one could accuse BBC business editor Robert Peston of avoiding his critics. But a grilling by MPs on the Treasury Select committee must have seemed a piece of cake by comparison with his two-day visit to the North-East of England to discuss with locals his handling of the Northern Rock crisis.
He was also quizzed by a group of schoolchildren in Middlesborough where, according to the BBC house magazine Ariel, the final question came from Amy (age unknown): “My mum thinks you're the modern-day Mr Darcy, what do you think?”
With uncharacteristic decision and directness, Peston replied: “Your mum's a very insightful person.”

* AS the property sector struggles to stay afloat, and building projects worldwide are put on hold, one firm is taking time out to party. Civil engineering consultant Curtins has sent out invites for a party on the beach at Cannes during MIPIM, the international commercial property show, next month. The invitation came with a pair of sunglasses, which guests have to wear to get into the party. Alas, they are not rose-tinted…

* Swiss bank UBS has slashed bonuses by 80% under pressure from the Government. But the bank remains anxious to stop people leaving. Can rumours be true that UBS is willing to give favoured employees big salary increases to close the gap?

Throttling back on the figures

How far off the road has Britain's biggest motor dealer skidded? We know Pendragon, the quoted company behind the Stratstone and Evans Halshaw forecourt brands, is in deep trouble because it said so when it last reported in November. But no news since. The company, chaired by ubiquitous boardroom figure Sir Nigel Rudd, has in the past unfailingly reported its full-year result by mid-February. But an official says that the company has no plans to report its figures this week — and that it may delay the admission of the depth of its losses until as late as April.

* It's not all awful in the car world: City Spy hears from one second-hand dealership that it has just enjoyed its best two weeks of the past six months. As people trade down, second-cars look more enticing.
The dealer was chuffed to sell an old Porsche with a £6000 margin, rather than the £2000 he was prepared to take.

* IS this an indicator of our motorists' new credit-crunch priorities? The AA's ranking of tourism and accommodation standards has just branched out to give out awards for “best cup of tea” and, er, “best toilet”. There were recession-worthy prizes too: winning venues received “either a commemorative plaque or a unique set of branded plates or mugs”.