Afternoon:
9°c
It must have seemed like a good idea at the time - agreeing to host the G20 in London. And while the summit remains a prestigious opportunity for the capital to showcase its wares, Gordon Brown would only be human if he was experiencing a twinge of regret today.
If the symbolism of holding the event in the world's leading financial centre amid a backdrop of a deepening global economic crisis wasn't bad enough, with all the protests that is bound to induce, there is the thought of the conference table and all the posturing and disagreements that are likely to ensue.
As he scans the table he will be confronted by diverging views on almost everything. While the "sherpas", the backroom civil servants, will have done their level best to achieve unity, the chances of rifts occurring are high.
Some countries want a global stimulus package, others don't. Some want to see greater contributions towards the IMF, others don't. Some accuse others of fomenting the credit crunch, the others say it's a world issue. Some maintain there's a need for greater regulation, the others aren't so bothered.
So it goes on. What will be resolved that, despite the best efforts of the politicians and their spin doctors to claim otherwise, will not amount to meaningless hot air remains to be seen.
One key issue must be resisted at all costs. The demands for protectionism are getting ever louder. Here, Brown can use the setting of the meeting to his advantage. Barriers to the exchange of goods and services and the movement of people would be disastrous for the UK. We're a small island that relies on imported food and resources. At the same time, the success of many of our largest businesses is founded upon their ability to export their wares.
If he wants to point to the prosperity and success that open doors can bring, Brown need only point to the London skyline, to the towers of the City and Canary Wharf. Sure, times are hard at present, as they are pretty much everywhere. But London is an economic success story; it didn't get to be Number One by freezing out foreigners.
There will be plenty of his co-leaders here who will be envious of London's position. They would give anything to have our financial might, to be similarly able to punch above their weight.
When they start moving towards tariffs and restrictions, Brown needs to gesture around him. He could utter some choice names - Goldman Sachs, UBS, Nomura,JPMorgan - as examples of foreign banks that were welcomed here and prospered.
If that doesn't work, he can hit them with some facts: more than 500 banks are licensed to do business in London; the UK was one of only three countries in the European Union to fully embrace the new EU member states.
The power of a gathering comprising 90% of the globe's GDP and 80% of its trade is enormous. Brown should invite them to consider what this great city would be like if Britain had not pursued a policy of openness.
It's actually a frightening vision; an apology for a financial district, jobs for a few thousand, rather than hundreds of thousands, no buzz and barely any tax revenues for the Government. One or two larger nations, like the US, could probably embrace a more protectionist climate and not suffer. On the contrary, argues an ever more strident lobby in Washington, it could be the saving of the US economy, buying American goods and creating American jobs for American workers. For most though, Britain included, let there be no mistake: it would be economic suicide.
If, as forecast, London grinds to a halt, the demonstrators cause mayhem and the roads are gridlocked, the delegates should get plenty of time to look around them.
To get to the ExCel they will have to journey through or over the City, past Canary Wharf. They should be furnished with a guide as to what they're seeing, what each of the major buildings represents. Brown should make sure they understand that on the need to avoid protectionism he is deadly serious.
Caution now the watchword at RBS? You have to be joking
In his new book The Storm - The World Economic Crisis and What It Means, Vince Cable includes a chapter on the madness that was Northern Rock.
While it's centred on the Newcastle-based bank, he records the frenzied atmosphere surrounding the UK housing market - how "mortgages were sold with evangelical zeal".
If there was one lesson to be learned from the creation and subsequent pricking of the UK credit bubble, it was that lenders had to be less free with their cash in future, that strict controls had to be applied. You'd hope by now, wouldn't you, that the banks would have mended their gung-ho ways, that a new regime was in force? Sadly and shockingly, you're wrong.
An email has been forwarded to me by a mortgage broker. It's from Julie Salmons, a business development manager of the consumer finance division of Royal Bank of Scotland. Of all banks, you could be forgiven for supposing that RBS had become more careful. Alas, not.
"We are currently instructing Drive-By valuations on remortgages up to 75% LTV where the loan amount is £350k or less," says Salmons. "There may be circumstances where it is appropriate to instruct a standard valuation below 75% LTV."
Those could be: "Where the customer discloses their property cannot be easily viewed or identified from a public area e.g. situated at the end of a private road. If the customer declares there to be a major extension to the property not viewable from the roadside. If the customer declares that there has been major internal renovation e.g. loft conversion."
So what this means is that RBS is instructing its surveyors to assess properties from the comfort of their cars - where the mortgage being sought is for up to 75% of the value and the loan is for £350,000 or less.
They can't be bothered to get out of their vehicle and have a walk around, let alone enter inside. Such surveys weren't new - they were a feature of the boom, now devastatingly ended.
But in my naive state, I assumed they had perished, that banks were acutely risk-conscious, that they were desperate to prove to the regulators, to the Financial Services Authority and the Bank of England, that they had changed, that caution was their watchword.
I would also have thought that in a falling market - and all the indicators are that house prices are continuing to drop - they would be doubly concerned. Not a bit of it. Silly me.
Banker anger ought not get out of hand
Alistair Darling is telling aides he “fears some politicians are in danger of stoking up public anger over past excesses to a dangerous level”.
Bankers were hate figures long before this crisis began, but the Government's attitude has not helped — it has effectively declared open season on them.
“They are the ones who led us into the mess: bankers,” said John Prescott. Not all bankers and not on their own — but John, why let the facts get in the way of a good kicking?
Last week, Sir Fred Goodwin had his windows broken and car damaged. Bankers and their families are petrified of what the future will bring. With their lack of intelligence, it's to be hoped that Darling and his colleagues don't end up with actual blood on their hands.
