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S&P recovery could be Slow & Protracted

1 Apr 2009


Have credit-crunched stock markets reached the bottom and started heading up? Maybe, but it could be a long time before the losses sustained since last October are recouped.

Peter Tanous, boss of consultancy firm Lynx Investment Advisory in Washington, points out that the S&P 500 index was down more than half, to a low of 676 points on 9 March from its peak of 1565 points 18 months earlier.

So how long could it take for the S&P to return to the 1500-plus mark? Five years? That could be optimistic since it would require a 131% gain - or 18% a year.

Yet Tanous says the average annual gain in the S&P since 1926 has been 9.7%. By that reckoning, it could take nine years to get back to 2007 levels...

* Where's that famous Blitz spirit among our bankers? City Spy has been utterly depressed by the number of readers - accountants, consultants and the like - telling us about their banker clients cancelling meetings this week for fear of G20 rioters.You'd have thought the amount of flak they've had in the past few months would have made them hardier by now.

* And stop this dressing down nonsense. Wear your pinstripe with pride!

* But one accountancy firm has been telling its staff how to look casual - it doesn't mean wearing pressed chinos, button-down shirts and loafers, they're told, or else they will be taken for accountants on a day off. It means really casual, think your scruffiest clothes, the ones you do gardening in...

* Who is the high-profile client whose finances are causing alarm at HBOS, and whose downfall may provoke enormous embarrassment?

MPs offered Travelodge dodge

Hats off to Travelodge for writing to the Speaker of the House of Commons, highlighting the savings MPs could make by staying at a Travelodge in London rather than in a second home.

The average cost per MP for their second-home allowance is £17,693, but staying at the Travelodge in Southwark Monday to Thursday nights while Parliament is sitting would cost a maximum of £10,065.

In all, that would save the taxpayer some £5 million.

“With the Southwark hotel being only two Underground stops from Parliament, MPs would be able to come back easily and safely from late-night sittings,” continues Travelodge. “With a Business Account Card, MPs could secure further discounts... They will also be able to accumulate Argos Reward Points, allowing them to furnish their constituency homes without spending any further money.”

Nice try, but somehow City Spy thinks our elected representatives have their sights on something a little grander than a Travelodge.

* One question: does the Travelodge account card entitle the holder to a discount on late night in-room entertainment?

A pensions blinder by the Bank

Blogger Guido Fawkes writes: “The Bank of England pension fund is managed on behalf of a very select and savvy group of people with access to a lot of market insight — the employees of the central bank.

“With great market timing, the fund sold out of equities entirely at the end of 2006, cutting a 21.6% holding down to 0.1%. Awesome market timing, the fund was consequently up 12% last year when, all around, markets crashed.”

* Dominic Fry on landing the Marks & Spencer director of communications post: “Extremely exciting job and very exciting company. Not an opportunity you walk past. Right now is a fabulous time to be joining.” Fry should know. He currently works for Tulchan, the agency that handles the financial PR for... M&S.

Game over for Mets fan Madoff

Poor Bernie Madoff. Now his creditors are even going after his seats at the New York Mets baseball ground. His spot just behind home base in the Shea Stadium was no doubt much used by the crooked billionaire to sweet-talk potential investors.

But his seats at the Mets' new ground (dubbed Bailout Park by New Yorkers as a nod to its backing by Citi), which average around £30,000 a season, are expected to be sold before games start there later this month. “We have no intention of not monetising them,” said a Madoff Securities trustee.

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