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Business

How the experts are seeing it

24 Apr 2009


John Cridland - Deputy director-general, CBI

"The figure is worse than some expected and shows how grim the last three months have been.

"Looking ahead, the best we can say is that the pace of economic decline may slow in the coming months.

"Given that unemployment will continue rising sharply, even if businesses begin to see the rate of decline in activity starting to ease, consumers are likely to feel anxious about job prospects."

Lee Hopley - Head of policy, EEF

"The worse-than-expected decline in GDP highlights the long climb back out of the doldrums that will be needed to get close to the Chancellor's growth forecasts for the next few years.

"Manufacturing remains the hardest hit part of the economy, reinforcing the view that the Budget is unlikely to have done enough to put us on the road to a more resilient and rebalanced economy."

Howard Archer - Chief European economist, Global Insight

"We expect the economy to contract at a slowing rate through the rest of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010 before stabilising.

"Nevertheless, GDP contraction of 4% or more looks very much on the cards for 2009.

"This makes the Chancellor's public deficit forecasts look even more questionable, especially as we expect GDP to edge down by a further 0.2% in 2010."

George Buckley - Chief UK economist, Deutsche Bank

"GDP collapsed in the first quarter of this year. The early 1990s recession has already been eclipsed, raising the risk that the total drop in output will eventually surpass the early 1980s.

"Green shoots suggest that the rate of decline in GDP may ameliorate going forward but there could be a long way to go before positive growth resumes."

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