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There are tentative signs that banks in the UAE are recovering from the credit crunch. Early results from the first-quarter earnings season paint a cautiously optimistic picture, while the central bank says lenders are making progress in rebuilding their balance sheets.
Take National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD), second-biggest in the country. Quarterly profit fell 12% from a year ago, to $220 million (£150 million). But that beat estimates by broker EFG-H ermes, and also showed marked improvement on the final quarter of last year. The bank's loan operation even managed a small gain, albeit by just a couple of per cent.
So much for the numbers. Chief executive Michael Tomalin trotted out the cliché of the moment in the press release accompanying the results. “Green shoots” of revival were indeed visible, although he warned that any growth in full-year profit will be modest.
Then there's the central bank. Together with the Ministry of Finance, it has pumped up to $32 billion (about 12% of GDP) into the banking system since the crisis hit home in September. This week, they said it's working: bank deposits are climbing, bringing the closely watched loans/deposits ratio closer to parity (it climbed to 107% last year, as the booming economy led to a rapid increase in borrowing).
We could all be forgiven for reading this as government spin; sovereign wealth funds own a majority stake in NBAD. But even the honest economists at Standard Chartered bank are buying it: “there are signs the economy is bottoming out,” says Marios Maratheftis, head of the regional research team, citing a recovery in trade and tourism. He says an extra $27 billion is needed to plug the national liquidity gap and get the banking system back to full speed.
If this is as bad as it gets, the UAE will breathe a sigh of relief.
* The luxury watchmakers at Patek Philippe have high hopes of the local retail market, opening their first flagship Middle East store this week at the huge Dubai Mall. President-elect Thierry Stern told me Gulf Arab and Russian customers love his custom-made watches, which can sell for $100,000 or more. Globally, he says sales are down between 5% and 10% this year. Not great, but better than many peers — Swiss watch exports fell 27% in the year to March.
* Law firm Eversheds is one group resisting the lure of Dubai. This week, it opened its third office in the region — in Saudi Arabia. Existing offices are in Abu Dhabi and the Qatari capital Doha.
