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Business

IHG is hard hit by sellers wary of pandemic gloom

Sarah Marks
1 May 2009


Three days is a long time in a nascent pandemic. There is every chance that the markets will re-open on Tuesday with 72 hours worth of panic-hewn news to digest.

Some investors appeared today to be selling ahead of bad news; the travel sector was particularly hard hit with Intercontinental Hotels Group one of the biggest blue-chip casualties, down 19p at 628p.

The Crowne Plaza-to-Holiday Inn group owns more than 4000 hotels in 100 countries, with the biggest concentration by far in the United States and a further 120 in Mexico.

Millennium & Copthorne, which is less exposed to the Americas, dipped 3.73p to 212.75p while Thomas Cook was also shunned, 5.5p lower at 257.25p, and Tui Travel gave up 1.28p to 250p.

Talk of a bull market died down as the FTSE 100 rally ran out of steam. With most of Europe closed for the May Day and our own long weekend looming, investors chose to bank recent gains, with high street lenders the largest losers. Barclays was down 8.5p at 273p while Lloyds slipped 3p to 109p.

Insurance stocks were hit too with Standard Life off 4.4p at 185.9p and Aviva 5.25p down at 310.25p. The FTSE 100 was up just 5.09 points at 4248.8.

Brokers said financials and telecoms were losing out to that old defensive favourite, utilities, with the biggest beneficiary Pennon, the water and sewerage group, up 17p at 461.75p.

The virtues of Pennon, whose best-known businesses are South West Water and Viridor Water, were talked up by analysts at UBS. They point out that Pennon trades at a bigger discount to value than any other water company and has the best capital structure to combat deflation.

Even better, there's virtually no chance of a rights issue and its well-positioned waste business should thrive in a weak economy. UBS has started coverage with a buy rating and a price target of 470p.

But National Grid, up 5p at 570p, is its top UK regulated stock as it has “the most robust dividend commitment and lowest regulatory risk in the space”.

Morgan Stanley is another fan of National Grid. It says the recent sell-off is overdone and thinks the shares could easily go higher than its own current target of 655p.

It thinks influential ratings agency Moody's is likely to remove its negative outlook on the Grid following a probable review in the aftermath of full-year results in a fortnight.

This should remove lingering fears about the balance sheet.

Early rumours that a deal between British Airways and Iberia could come as soon as next week were not reflected in the share price with the flag carrier up just 1.3p at 149.2p, although volumes were higher than normal.

Deutsche Bank believes that the rally in retail has further to run and has upped its forecasts and target prices for many household names.

Better weather and lower mortgage rates have tempted people back to the shops, while the demise of weaker players such as Woolworths has strengthened those left in the market.

In fact, since July last year, the combined sector has clawed back almost half the decline in share price seen in the previous year and a half. It predicts more positive news stories round the corner.

B&Q owner Kingfisher, down 1.4p at 184.7p, remains its favourite big retailer with a new target price of 210p, up from 170p. It also rates jeweller Signet and Debenhams, ¾ up at 92 ½p, as top stocks.

The only company that has been deemed worthy of a rerating is DSGi. It has been upped from sell to hold on the grounds that concerns over refinancing are retreating with investors and lenders prepared to stump up more cash if necessary.

The major disappointment is Marks & Spencer. Deutsche is still telling clients to sell M&S, up ¾p at 339.5p, because it worries that “continuing execution errors leave the door open for further sales and margin setbacks”.

It says the big issue is “the ineffective nature of promotions” at the store. While it has lifted its target to 300p from 250p, it reckons it looks expensive.

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