The mining bulls have run ahead of themselves. That is the verdict of Citigroup, which today urged caution in wake of the recent recovery in commodities stocks.

The broker believes that the market is behaving as though another supercycle is approaching, and its analysts are doubtful that is the case. It says that metal prices have hit the bottom, but that the recovery will be slow.

Citi points out that in four months, the sector has gone from massive earnings downgrades and intense pressure on balance sheets to leading a broad rally as metal prices recover.

Spot earnings have pointed towards possible earnings upgrades for the first time in nearly a year, but analysts believe the markets have been swift to price this into the shares.

Citi favours Rio Tinto, 54p lower at 2945p, and has today upgraded Xstrata from sell to hold, setting a price target of 750p. The Anglo-Swiss miner has the biggest exposure to base metals in the sector - accounting for 60% of earnings - and Citi predicts non-precious metals will lead the recovery in prices.

Rising demand and financing conditions should make Xstrata a potential candidate both for acquisitions and to be acquired itself, and will allow the group to focus more on growth. Xstrata dipped 5½p to 717½p.

Citi remains less keen on copper miner Antofagasta. Despite upping its price target 450p to 550p, it advises clients to drop the stock, which today sank 9p to 629½p.

The FTSE lost 16.17 points to 4445.92 as losses from the mining heavyweights weighed on the benchmark.

But Barclays gained 6¼p to 287¼p on talk that a bidding war could erupt for its iShares asset management division. Private equity group CVC has agreed to pay £3 billion for iShares but the bank held on to the right to seek out a better deal and has now received new interest in the fund manager. Three new bidders - said to be buyout groups Apax, Bain Capital and BC Partners - are thought to have joined the race.

Goldman Sachs today got the party started at nightclubs operator Luminar, pushing its shares up 21½p to 165p. The big-hitting broker has upgraded the owner of the Oceana, Liquid and Lava & Ignite brands from neutral to buy and raised its price target from 121p to 185p ahead of full-year results on Thursday.

Goldman reckons its share price will soon start to rise as investors' appetite for risk returns. Although analysts predict sales will remain weak - with like-for-likes sinking 4.7% this year and by 5% next year - if the UK economy starts to recover and consumer confidence returns, Luminar will beat forecasts. A renegotiation of its banking covenants, which Goldman says now looks more likely, would boost shares.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei oscillated between the red and the black, eventually closing up 19.15 points at 9451.88. Financial shares soared on hopes that a recovery in the economy would boost bank earnings. Mizuho Financial Group and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial gained almost 5% and Nomura was up 4.5%.

But Toyota, the world's biggest carmaker, dived 4%, dragging down its automotive sector peers, after it sank into the red on Friday for the first time in almost six decades.

In Hong Kong, shares rose for the eighth day in a row to hit their highest level in more than months. The benchmark Hang Seng gained 187.3 points to 17,577.2. despite investors pocketing profits on shipping stocks. Cathay Pacific Airways was the biggest winner among blue chips, surging 9.6%, as fears about swine flu subsided.