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India-flavoured shares add spice to gains by the Footsie

Rosamund Urwin
18 May 2009


London shares with an Indian focus enjoyed a day in the sun today as the election-inspired gains spilled over from the subcontinent.

Vedanta Resources, India's biggest copper and zinc producer, shrugged off a mining sector sell-off to trade up 57p to 1373p while Cairn Energy, the oil explorer with assets in India put on 71p to 2407p. But the biggest winner of all was FTSE 250-listed JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust which gained almost 17% to trade up 48½p to 334½p.

The rises followed the business-friendly National Congress Party's victory. Indian shares soared by record levels and investors are betting that the administration will continue its reforms to boost growth.

The FTSE recovered from early losses to gain 48.11 points to 4397.58, led by holiday and financial stocks. Volumes were thin as investors waited for the big news tomorrow from Vodafone and Marks & Spencer. The High Street chain is expected to cut its dividend to conserve cash, but Pali International's retail guru Nick Bubb says that Sir Stuart Rose may soften the blow by reporting a stabilisation in food sales. But Bubb is gloomy about trading for the rest of this year and suggests dumping the stock to take advantage of its recent rally. He predicts that M&S will continue to struggle, particularly if it continues its discounting strategy. The shares gained 12½p to 340p. Société Générale is also advising to dump Vodafone ahead of its full-year numbers, warning that earnings will be hit as cash-strapped consumers stop splashing out on mobile phones. It sets a 110p price target on the shares, which today put on 2.8p to 126p.

Thomas Cook claimed the Footsie's crown, 18¾p stronger at 242½p, as Swiss travel giant Kuoni Reisen said it is on the lookout for acquisitions. The UK tour operator's shares have slumped in the last fortnight by almost a quarter amid concerns over Arcandor, the struggling German firm which holds a majority stake.

HSBC was another of the day's big winners, adding 18½p to 550½p as Citigroup raised its price target to 650p from 500p and advised clients to snap up the stock. It says the run-off of its US consumer finance loan book will take up to eight years to complete and will need a big cash injection but that this looks manageable. Citi also reckons the banking giant can avoid a restructuring of its financing position.

Investors waiting for the next mining boom had better be in it for the long haul: analysts predicted today that it won't start until 2016. Although shares in the sector have rallied sharply in recent months, Citigroup reckons that investors have been over-optimistic. Looking at past cycles, Citi says it is common for shares to recover a year or so after the super-cycle comes to an end as investors are keen not to miss out on the start of the next bull market. Usually, the new boom does not begin for between seven and 10 years.

Citi's analysts are optimistic that BHP Billiton, down 26p at 1384p, and Rio Tinto can avoid the pain the sector suffered between 1982 and 1986 but they are unconvinced that the shares will continue to rise in the next couple of months.

They also believe any good news coming out of the sector has been priced in for the next six months.
Royal Bank of Scotland also jumped on the bandwagon, warning today that valuations now “look full”.

The broker reality-check sparked a sell-off of the miners — with the exception of Vedanta. Rio Tinto lost 96p to 2568p as BNP Paribas warned its fate was “largely in the hands of Australian politicians” because of the continued uncertainty over the Chinalco deal.

Drax, the monster coal-fired power station in Yorkshire, recovered from early losses to trade up 2¼p to 490½p despite S&P's decision to downgrade its debt rating. UBS notes that S&P's move casts doubt over how much debt the company can refinance next year and says that this has left its rivals looking more attractive. The broker has given Drax a neutral rating and set a 515p price target.

Redrow may have announced last week that it was restarting building on most of its sites but broker sentiment soured against the housebuilder today. UBS said that the inflexibility of its balance sheet means that Redrow could have to tap investors for cash to take advantage of the current knockdown prices of land. UBS has cut its rating on the shares to sell, but has upped its price target from 144p to 155p. Today they lost 1¼p to 194p.

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