Afternoon:
9°c
There can't be many things as boring as economic statistics. Mention GDP or PPI to your neighbour at dinner and you find yourself talking to a pair of shoulder blades. It's all small numbers about large subjects. They go up and down a bit. But if you can't remember what they were in the first place, interest wanes pretty quickly.
But times change in Shanghai. One by-product of the global financial crisis is that statistics have become part of pop culture. People really know their economic numbers, just like football scores or the stock index.
So imagine the consternation when one of the central icons in this new culture, the National Bureau of Statistics, becomes the target of foreign criticism. This might have gone completely unnoticed had the NBS not issued a strongly worded press release in its defence last week. That in itself was unusual.
The spat started when an unnamed international organisation (everyone knows it's the International Energy Authority) cast doubt on the NBS first-quarter figures. These showed GDP rising by 6.1% while oil and electricity consumption fell. In most economies, there's a strong correlation between economic growth and energy consumption. The Chinese figures were pointing in opposite directions.
The NBS was having none of this. The reason for the apparent discrepancy is that China's economy has changed structurally. They say growth is coming from new industries which are far less energy intensive. QED.
Everyone knows that economic statistics are notoriously unreliable. But public opinion rallied round the NBS with support coming from unlikely places. The National Electricity Grid produced figures for "the second 10-day period of May" showing positive electricity growth in the central and eastern regions of the country. Amazing what you can dig up if you need to.
* NOTHING like the resumption of new listings to make the stock market nervous. Suspended so far this year, the authorities have announced they could be back soon, but with a difference. Greater access for individuals and new pricing mechanisms. The proposals are even subject to public consultation. But don't wait too long, it only lasts two weeks.
* HOLIDAY time again last week. The Dragon Boat Festival first entered China's galaxy of holidays last year. Long a favourite in Hong Kong, it comes with a mainland twist. Falling on Thursday, Friday became a holiday and then back to work on Sunday. For everyone? Well, mainly schoolchildren and government employees.
