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The fate of Saudi billionaire Maan al-Sanea is sending shockwaves around the Gulf - with ripples felt in London - as bankers fear he could be the first of many Arab tycoons to wilt under the credit crunch.
On Tuesday, shares of British homebuilder Berkeley fell 12% in early trading, after 16 million of them were sold (his Saad Group conglomerate owned about a third of the company).
HSBC also declined: al Sanea owns about 3% of the bank, and traders suspect he may offload some or all of that stake in a bid to rescue his business empire.
It may not be enough. Saad has defaulted on loans; Moody's and S&P have withdrawn their ratings; while BDO Capital is advising on a restructuring. A related company, The International Banking Corporation, is also in default. It's controlled by Saudi Arabia's Algosaibi family, which he married into.
"This is a game changer," one expat banker in Dubai told me. "If he's not too big to fail, no one is.
"There are a lot of bankers scurrying around the Gulf, scrutinising their loans to large Gulf family firms like never before."
Al-Sanea ranked third in the 2008 Arabian Business magazine's Arab Rich List, with an estimated $9.3 billion personal fortune.
Still, some good may come from it. My banker friend tells me it could sound the death knell of the well-established - and fundamentally flawed - practice of name lending. Many large family firms in cities such as Riyadh, Dubai and Doha consider it an insult if a bank asks to see the books before lending $100 million. That leaves bankers with two choices - walk away and let your competitor win the business, or turn a blind eye and hand over the cash.
Until now, most have chosen the risky second route. Not for much longer.
SALES of luxury goods in Dubai have dropped 45% since the peak last year, according to one of the city's leading retailers. Tony Jashanmal, whose company is the local outlet for Burberry and Louis Vuitton, says the market has now stabilised but warns that wealthy shoppers from Iran, India and Russia will be slow to return.
THE world's richest sportsman has been hit by the Dubai property downturn. Tiger Woods was set to open his first golf course in Dubai this winter. He says the project has been delayed, and that it may now open next summer. Government developer Tatweer is building the project, which will include a selection of luxury villas.
