Tonight:
4°c
Despite recent strengths, there are gloomy predictions for the Shanghai stock market during the rest of the year. A wave of new issues and poor corporate results are just two of the negatives being trotted out. More gloom, less spend. Not what the government ordered.
But rely on the State Council for an innovative solution or two. The latest is designed to take some of that negativity out of the market while helping the National Social Security Fund, staggering under the weight of the greying population. One arrow, two vultures, as the saying goes.
The deal is that state-owned companies listing on the domestic markets have to transfer 10% of the issue to the NSSF for free. Shares are locked up for at least three years. Companies listed since 2006 also have to divvy up 10%. Net result: supply is taken out of the market. That should give some comfort to new-issue worriers.
Meanwhile, the NSSF is delighted. It's a key part of the fledgling social security system and needs huge funding.
It had a bad year in 2008 and showed its first loss on investments since being set up in 2000. That said, it has managed an average annual return of 8.98%. Better than most funds. Ageing is a major headache in China. But nowhere more so than Shanghai where the over 60s represent more than 21% of residents. Migrant workers aren't included here; they have to go home to retire.
But it's not all bad news. An ageing population can provide opportunities. Advertisers and retailers now see oldies as a new and growing consumer group.
Products and services are being repositioned. Sheltered housing and nursing homes are springing up. With one-child families coming of age, granny flats are just not big enough.
GLOBAL recession is creating new migratory patterns. The "turtles" are returning home. They're overseas Chinese who sought their fortunes in the US and Europe but now see home pastures as rather greener. It may work but there's a lot of competition. Turtles are more likely to be found on the menu than in the office at the moment.
WHEN western architects first arrived in Shanghai, six storeys was thought the maximum for buildings. Modern foundation techniques changed that. But the recent collapse - actually it just fell over - of a nearly completed 13-storey building in Minhang district is a bit worrying. Pictures of the almost-intact building on its side like a fallen tree show some very shallow roots.
