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Business

Shipping forecast is set fair thanks to China’s needs

Mickey Clark
16 Jul 2009


Merchant ships, which have been riding at anchor off our shores for months, are building up a full head of steam as they look to benefit from increased Chinese demand for raw materials.

The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the international shipping prices of various dry bulk cargoes, has risen 7.33% to 3324, from a recent low of just below 3000 and a high of 4300.

The men with the pointy heads at MF Global expect the index to bounce back to around 4000 in the short term which they say is good news for metals and therefore the miners.

MFG also says activity and confidence in China has improved further of late in sectors such as the car and construction industries, which should result in further demand for commodities and a destocking of current holdings.

MFG says the companies most likely to do well out of the restocking by China are Xstrata, 6.20p better at 672.2p, which it rates a buy, and Vedanta Resources, 21p dearer at 1467p, rated neutral.

Two companies it expects to underperform are BHP Billiton, 14½p higher at 1450p, and Antofagasta, unmoved on 647½p, which are rated neutral.

That will please investors looking to extend the stock market's rally of the past few days. But their cause suffered a bit of a setback today with share prices among the big mining companies proving vulnerable to profit-taking.

Randgold was off 38p at 3833p, and Rio Tinto, down 14½p at 2090p. Lonmin rose 6p to 1111p despite Canaccord Adams slashing its target from 1275p to 1000p.

Meanwhile, Anglo American's defence against the unwanted bid from Anglo-Swiss rival Xstrata may have been dealt a blow.

Its Anglo Platinum quoted subsidiary is reckoned to be working on a £1.2 billion rights issue, which will be announced next week alongside its interim results.

If Anglo Platinum does launch a cash call, Anglo American's take-up would be almost £1 billion in order to maintain its 80% stake.

Brokers say that might be enough to sway Anglo American's shareholders to reconsider the proposed all-share takeover offer from Xstrata. Anglo American traded 36½p cheaper at 1763½p.

Mexican silver miner Fresnillo firmed 10½p to 571p after telling shareholders it expected to see output up by between 5% and 6%.

Shares in former England cricketer Phil Edmonds' Central African Mining & Exploration (Camec) jumped 3½p to 15½p after receiving a number of bid approaches.

At these levels, the group boasts a stock-market price tag of £465 million.

The group, which produces copper, platinum and cobalt on the dark continent, admits it was forced to make an announcement following several days of speculation in the market place.

City folk say Camec could be the target of a bid by Brazil's Vale, which was also being tipped to try for Xstrata again, and a Chinese materials company. An offer worth 22p a share is being bandied around.

Camec recently reported a significant find of platinum in Zimbabwe. There was no comment from Edmonds, who may have been tucking into the prawn sandwiches at Lord's, watching the first day of the second Ashes test.

Lord's was his home ground when he bowled for Middlesex, a club of which he later became chairman.

The rest of the market was a touch firmer for choice, but turnover levels remained low. The FTSE 100 rose 23.43 to 4369.89. Wall Street extended yesterday's gains this afternoon with the Dow Jones up 9.15 to 8625.36.

Leading London blue-chips higher was SabMiller, up 26p at 1317p, after Exane BNP Paribas raised its rating on the brewer from underperform to neutral.

Drugs giant AstraZeneca was another firm market, adding 34p at 2755½p. Rival Novartis has reported a 10% drop in profits to $2 billion, but this was in line with forecasts.

AZ has linked with the Mental Health Research Institute in Australia to improve the early detection of Alzheimer's Disease.

A profits warning left Spectris nursing a loss of 30p at 520p.

The precision instruments and controls group said first-half sales are likely to be down 20% on last year with operating profits halved to £20 million.

Spectris blames continuing weakness in both its main markets of automotive and mining. It says customer demand remains difficult to predict, but some improvement is expected in the second half.

KBC Peel Hunt has repeated its sell rating on the shares and says the group has significant exposure to Europe, which will remain challenging.

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